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Exploring the boundary of skilful seasonal forecasts for extreme storms over the North-Atlantic (EX-Storms)

探索北大西洋极端风暴（EX-Storms）的熟练季节性预报的边界

基本信息

批准号：
NE/X01004X/1
负责人：
Gregor Leckebusch
金额：
$ 10.09万
依托单位：
University of Birmingham
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2022
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2022 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FX01004X%2F1
关键词：
Exploring boundary skilful seasonal forecasts

项目摘要

Severe synoptic-scale windstorm events in the Northwest Atlantic are affecting the UK and western Central Europe in winter (DJF). Damages in the magnitude of ca. EUR 3,610 million were recorded for the last season in 2021/22. Those damaging, rare events are linked to the development of strong storm cyclones in the climate system of the North-Atlantic. This project will explore the opportunity to provide skilful and useful predictions of the winter storm season ahead of the season in November. Thus, it will explore and understand our ability to predict whether it will be e.g., an active season (number of severe events) or not, whether we can have confidence in the forecast at the time of it being issued and what the reasons for this confidence would be. Usability of predictions of the upcoming winter storm season depends a) on our understanding of the factors leading to the variability of storms, and b) on our understanding how a forecast for the next season will depend on these factors. This project will explore one potential critical factor and its role for the forecast skill of severe events leading to loss and damage. One crucial factor of steering the climatic conditions in the North-Atlantic and Europe is the forcing of the atmospheric conditions (and here especially its baroclinicity) from anomalous sea-surface temperature patterns. So called re-emerging (in autumn/winter) temperature anomalies (from summer) would provide a potential mechanism for memory transport (via slow-varying components of the climate system) from late summer/early autumn to winter and finally resulting in extreme storm activity. Recent developments in seasonal forecast suites to forecast those oceanic re-emerging events are existing and this project will explore their role in steering variability of the storm season in reality as well as to quantify their potential role in gaining forecast skill in the model domain. EX-Storms will apply a novel approach (UNSEEN, i.a. pioneered by the applicant) to use non-realised but physically consistent events from century long seasonal and decadal hindcast (multi-member ensembles) to explore this physical pathway influencing the winter storm activity level. For the first time, EX-Storms will explore how far our current abilities allow for a pre-season view on the upcoming risk of severe storms.

西北大西洋的严重天气尺度风暴事件正在影响英国和中欧西部的冬季（DJF）。损失的程度。2021/22年度上个赛季录得36.1亿欧元。这些破坏性的罕见事件与北大西洋气候系统中强风暴旋风的发展有关。该项目将探索在11月冬季风暴季节之前提供熟练和有用的预测的机会。因此，它将探索和理解我们预测它是否会发生的能力，活跃季节（严重事件的数量）与否，我们是否可以在预测发布时对其有信心，以及这种信心的原因是什么。预测即将到来的冬季风暴季节的可用性取决于a）我们对导致风暴变化的因素的理解，以及B）我们对下一个季节的预测如何取决于这些因素的理解。本项目将探讨一个潜在的关键因素及其在导致损失和损害的严重事件预测技能中的作用。引导北大西洋和欧洲气候条件的一个关键因素是异常海面温度模式对大气条件（特别是其斜压性）的强迫。所谓的重现（在秋季/冬季）温度异常（从夏季）将提供一个潜在的机制，从夏末/初秋到冬季的记忆传输（通过气候系统的缓慢变化的组件），并最终导致极端风暴活动。最近的发展，季节预报套件，以预测这些海洋重新出现的事件是现有的，这个项目将探讨他们的作用，在现实中的风暴季节的转向变化，以及量化他们的潜在作用，在获得预测技能的模式域。EX-Storms将采用一种新的方法（UNSEEN，即由申请人开创）使用来自世纪长的季节性和十年期后报（多成员集合）的未实现但物理上一致的事件来探索影响冬季风暴活动水平的该物理路径。这是第一次，EX-Storms将探索我们目前的能力在多大程度上允许对即将到来的严重风暴风险进行季前观察。