Family Policies, Child Cost, and Low Fertility

我们提出了一套初步研究，将证明在低生育率国家进行生育率变化国际研究的可行性和重要性。在提议的初步研究中，将调查美国和某些欧洲国家生育率变化的原因。我们将估计在a)生育的职业成本，b)孩子的直接成本，以及c)收入充足性/稳定性方面的跨国和跨时间变化。接下来，我们将比较这些因素在不同群体之间的变化，以及国家和地方生育率的变化。我们将确定这些因素是否可以解释当代的跨国差异，以及过去十年左右几个欧洲国家生育率的急剧下降。为了实现这些目标，我们使用了美国、德国和瑞典的面板数据，对于更广泛的欧洲国家，我们将检查来自家庭和生育调查（FFS）的数据。虽然这些研究本身很重要，但我们认为它们是R01提案的初步研究。其他建议的工作包括检查可能包括在更大的研究中的其他数据，并与潜在的合作者联系，以扩大和丰富计划中的R01项目。

We propose a set of preliminary studies that will demonstrate the feasibility and importance of an international study of fertility variation in low fertility countries. In the proposed preliminary studies will investigate the reasons for fertility variation in the U.S. and in selected European countries. We will estimate cross-national and cross- temporal variation in a) the career cost of fertility, b) the direct costs of children, and c) income adequacy/stability. Next, we will compare variation in these factors across groups and with variation in national and sub-national fertility rates. We will determine whether these factors can explain the contemporary cross-national variation and the sharp drop in fertility rates over the past decade or so in several European countries. To accomplish these aims, we use panel data for the United States, Germany, and Sweden and, for a broader set of European countries, we will examine data from the Family and Fertility Surveys (FFS). While these studies are important in their own right, we view them as preliminary studies for an R01 proposal. Additional proposed work includes examination of other data that might be included in the larger study and contacts with potential collaborators that would widen and enrich the planned R01 project.