Expectation and Forecast. Business Cycle Research in the United States, Germany and the Netherlands, 1920-1960

期望和预测。

• 批准号: 275757112
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Alexander Nützenadel
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Lehrstuhl für Sozial- und Wirtschaftsgeschichte
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Priority Programmes
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2014-12-31 至 2021-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/275757112?language=en
• 关键词: Expectation; Forecast.; Business; Cycle; Research

Quantitative business cycle research explores past and current economic fluctuations in order to forecast future economic trends (professional expectation formation). These forecasts subsequently influence expectations and behavior of economic and political decision-makers (economic expectations) and thus future economic outcomes. The objective of this project is to investigate the process of professional expectation formation in business cycle research between 1920 and 1960. How did economists at the formerly New York-based National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the Deutsches Institut für Konjunkturforschung (IfK)/Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) in Berlin, and the The Hague-based Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS) and the Centraal Planbureau (CPB) evaluate the past behavior of individual economic actors, and how did they use this information to identify the actors respective future economic expectations? How did business cycle researchers create forecasts based on this data? This study evaluates the influence of economic events, political institutions, and the individual degree of political integration of business cycle research on professional expectation formation. For this purpose, it undertakes a broad historical contextualization of the respective approaches of American, German and Dutch economists between 1920 and 1960. The timeframe of 1920 to 1960 encompasses the rise of business cycle research from its emergence as an independent scientific discipline following World War I up to its golden days as a directing element of modern Macroeconomics in the 1950s. Economists at the NBER, the IfK/DIW and the CBS were all influenced by the approach of the Harvard Committee of Economic Research (Harvard Business Barometer). The debates prior to the establishment of the three institutes and the goals assigned to them resembled each other. However, the three institutes quickly developed distinct research profiles. By comparing the process of professional expectation formation within the historical context of the United States, Germany and the Netherlands, the proposed study investigates the influence of experience and institutions on expectation and thus contributes to the ongoing academic discourse on economic expectation formation.

量化经济周期研究探索过去和当前的经济波动，以预测未来的经济趋势（专业预期的形成）。这些预测随后影响经济和政治决策者的预期和行为（经济预期），从而影响未来的经济结果。本研究旨在探讨1920 - 1960年经济周期研究中专业期望的形成过程。原位于纽约的国家经济研究局（NBER）、位于柏林的德国<s:1>经济研究机构(IfK)/德国<s:1>经济研究机构（DIW）以及位于海牙的中央统计局（CBS）和中央计划局（CPB）的经济学家是如何评估单个经济参与者过去的行为的？他们又是如何利用这些信息来确定参与者各自的未来经济预期的？商业周期研究人员是如何根据这些数据做出预测的？本研究评估经济周期研究的经济事件、政治制度和个人政治整合程度对职业期望形成的影响。为此，它对1920年至1960年间美国、德国和荷兰经济学家各自的方法进行了广泛的历史背景化。1920年至1960年的时间框架涵盖了商业周期研究的兴起，从第一次世界大战后作为一门独立的科学学科出现，一直到20世纪50年代作为现代宏观经济学指导因素的黄金时期。NBER、IfK/DIW、CBS的经济学家们都受到了哈佛经济研究委员会（Harvard Business Barometer）方法的影响。这三个研究所在成立之前的争论和分配给它们的目标是相似的。然而，这三个研究所很快就形成了各自不同的研究概况。通过比较美国、德国和荷兰的历史背景下职业期望的形成过程，本研究探讨了经验和制度对期望的影响，从而为正在进行的经济期望形成的学术论述做出贡献。