Expectation and Forecast. Business Cycle Research in the United States, Germany and the Netherlands, 1920-1960

定量经济周期研究探讨过去和当前的经济波动，以预测未来的经济趋势（专业预期形成）。这些预测随后会影响经济和政治决策者的预期和行为（经济预期），从而影响未来的经济结果。本研究旨在探讨1920 - 1960年间商业周期研究中专业期望的形成过程。位于纽约的国家经济研究局（NBER）、位于柏林的德国经济研究所（IfK）/德国经济研究所（DIW）以及位于海牙的中央统计局（CBS）和中央计划局（CPB）的经济学家是如何评估单个经济参与者过去的行为的，他们如何利用这些信息来确定参与者各自的未来经济预期？商业周期研究人员如何根据这些数据进行预测？本研究评估经济事件、政治制度、个人对经济周期研究的政治整合程度对专业期望形成的影响。为此目的，它承担了广泛的历史背景下的美国，德国和荷兰的经济学家在1920年和1960年之间的各自的方法。1920年至1960年的时间框架涵盖了商业周期研究的兴起，从第一次世界大战后作为一门独立的科学学科出现，到20世纪50年代作为现代宏观经济学的指导元素的黄金时期。NBER、IfK/DIW和CBS的经济学家都受到了哈佛经济研究委员会（哈佛商业晴雨表）方法的影响。这三个研究所在成立之前的辩论和为它们规定的目标彼此相似。然而，这三个研究所很快就形成了不同的研究概况。通过比较美国、德国和荷兰的职业期望形成过程，研究经验和制度对职业期望的影响，为经济期望形成的学术研究提供参考。

Quantitative business cycle research explores past and current economic fluctuations in order to forecast future economic trends (professional expectation formation). These forecasts subsequently influence expectations and behavior of economic and political decision-makers (economic expectations) and thus future economic outcomes. The objective of this project is to investigate the process of professional expectation formation in business cycle research between 1920 and 1960. How did economists at the formerly New York-based National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the Deutsches Institut für Konjunkturforschung (IfK)/Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) in Berlin, and the The Hague-based Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS) and the Centraal Planbureau (CPB) evaluate the past behavior of individual economic actors, and how did they use this information to identify the actors respective future economic expectations? How did business cycle researchers create forecasts based on this data? This study evaluates the influence of economic events, political institutions, and the individual degree of political integration of business cycle research on professional expectation formation. For this purpose, it undertakes a broad historical contextualization of the respective approaches of American, German and Dutch economists between 1920 and 1960. The timeframe of 1920 to 1960 encompasses the rise of business cycle research from its emergence as an independent scientific discipline following World War I up to its golden days as a directing element of modern Macroeconomics in the 1950s. Economists at the NBER, the IfK/DIW and the CBS were all influenced by the approach of the Harvard Committee of Economic Research (Harvard Business Barometer). The debates prior to the establishment of the three institutes and the goals assigned to them resembled each other. However, the three institutes quickly developed distinct research profiles. By comparing the process of professional expectation formation within the historical context of the United States, Germany and the Netherlands, the proposed study investigates the influence of experience and institutions on expectation and thus contributes to the ongoing academic discourse on economic expectation formation.