Hybrid physical-statistical models for air quality prediction from traffic data

在本研究中，我们将开发一个混合的物理-统计模式的空气质量预测。这项研究是AVL和EPSRC统计应用数学博士培训中心（桑巴舞）之间的合作。该项目旨在将联合收割机确定性模型和统计模型相结合，以预测城市内的空气污染水平。重点是交通模式、车辆类型、城市布局和气象条件导致的空气质量变化。其目的是将来自交通和污染监测器的真实的时间数据纳入预测。另一个目的是制定方法，区分交通与其他污染源的相对影响。首先，将使用物理和化学模型来描述汽车交通和污染物浓度。一个统计模型将用于分析位于城市中的交通和污染监测传感器提供的数据。随后，统计模型将用于识别和解释与物理模型假设的偏差，以及校准模型参数。最后，目标将是开发一个混合系统，物理和统计模型一起工作，以改善预测。监督小组由Paul Milewski教授和Theresa Smith博士组成，Paul Milewski教授是流体和连续过程物理建模专家，Theresa Smith博士是空间统计专家。他们一起跨越了项目所需的专业知识。AVL的联系人是Gerhard Schagerl，他将为该项目的工业影响提供指导。

In the present study, we shall develop a hybrid physical-statistical model for air quality prediction. The research is a collaborative work between AVL and the EPSRC Centre for Doctoral Training Statistical Applied Mathematics (SAMBa). The project aims to combine deterministic and statistical modelling to forecast air pollution levels within a city. The focus is on air quality change resulting from traffic patterns, vehicle types, urban layout and meteorological conditions. The aim is to move towards incorporating real time data from traffic and pollution monitors to inform the forecast. It is also an aim to develop methods that can distinguish the relative impact of traffic from other sources of pollution. First, a physical and chemical model will be used to describe automobile traffic and pollutant concentrations. A statistical model will be used to analyse data provided by traffic and pollution monitoring sensors located in a city. Subsequently, the statistical model will be used to identify and account for deviations from the assumptions of the physical model as well as to calibrate the model parameters. Finally, the goal will be to develop a hybrid system where both physical and statistical models work together to improve forecasts. The supervisory team consists of Prof. Paul Milewski who is an expert on physical modelling of fluid and continuum processes, and Dr Theresa Smith who is an expert on spatial statistics. Together they span the expertise needed for the project. The AVL contact is Gerhard Schagerl who will provide guidance on the industrial impact of the project.