Family Instability and Selection Effects on Children

描述（由申请人提供）：提出的研究测试了两个假设的相对强度，这两个假设可以解释儿童经历的家庭结构转变次数与他或她的认知成就和社会情感健康之间的关系。在家庭社会学中得到支持的不稳定假说认为，经历更多家庭结构转变的孩子，其发展结果会更差。一些研究报告的结果与这种联系一致，一些人认为家庭结构不稳定的影响可能比与单亲生活本身的影响更大。但另一种合理的解释是，家庭不稳定和较差的儿童发展可能通过反映父母先前行为和属性的共同因果因素相互关联。研究者把这种解释称为选择假说。不稳定性假说和自然选择假说还没有直接相互检验。研究人员建议使用具有全国代表性的纵向数据对他们进行测试，这些数据包括儿童行为和认知发展、家族史和孩子出生前母亲的背景等详细信息。所建议的数据是1979年至2000年全国青年纵向调查（NLSY）及其2000年母婴补充数据。分析的重点是2000年8至14岁的儿童，因为他们构成了美国儿童中最具代表性的子样本。2000年测量的结果变量包括儿童认知成就和内化和外化行为的指标。关键的预测变量包括：(1)儿童的家庭结构历史，包括转变的次数；(2) 1979年至1986年间，在子样本中的任何一个孩子出生之前，母亲问题行为的测量结果。提出的方法包括OLS回归和多指标、潜在变量模型。如果考虑到母亲的背景大大减少了过渡和儿童结局之间的联系，那么分析将为选择假设提供支持。如果过渡的影响大大减少，但在母亲背景的控制下仍然具有统计学意义，那么这两个假设都将得到支持。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The proposed study tests the relative strength of two hypotheses that may explain the association between the number of transitions in family structure that a child experiences and his or her cognitive achievement and socioemotional well being. The instability hypothesis, which is gaining support in family sociology, argues that children who experience more family structure transitions experience poorer developmental outcomes as a result. Several studies have reported findings consistent with this association, and some argue that the effects of instability in family structure may be stronger than the effects of living with a single parent per se. But a plausible alternative explanation is that family instability and poorer child development may be associated with each other through common causal factors that reflect parents' antecedent behavior and attributes. The investigators refer to this explanation as the selection hypothesis. The instability and selection hypotheses have not been directly tested against each other. The investigators propose to test them using nationally representative longitudinal data that includes detailed information on children's behavioral and cognitive development, family history, and mother's background prior to the child's birth. The proposed data are the 1979 through 2000 waves of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) and its 2000 mother-child supplement. The analyses focus on children who were 8 to 14 in 2000 because they constituted the most representative sub-sample of American children. Outcome variables measured in 2000 include indicators of children's cognitive achievement and internalizing and externalizing behavior. Key sets of predictor variables include: (1) measures of the children's family structure histories, including the number of transitions; and (2) measures of mothers' problem behavior obtained between 1979 and 1986, before any of the children in the sub-sample were born. The proposed methods include OLS regression and multiple-indicator, latent-variable models. If accounting for mother's background substantially reduces the associations between transitions and child outcomes, the analyses would provide support for the selection hypothesis. Both hypotheses would receive support if the effect of transitions were substantially reduced but still statistically significant in the presence of controls for mother's background.