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Southern Hemisphere climate change in an era of ozone recovery

臭氧恢复时代的南半球气候变化

基本信息

批准号：
NE/E006787/1
负责人：
Ian Renfrew
金额：
$ 33.04万
依托单位：
University of East Anglia
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2007
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2007 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FE006787%2F1
关键词：
Southern Hemisphere climate change era

项目摘要

Over the past thirty years, the westerly winds blowing around the Southern Ocean have grown stronger, and this change in the circulation of the atmosphere has led to a cooling over most of Antarctica, and a warming of the Antarctic Peninsula and southern South America. Recent research suggests that this trend has also influenced the ocean circulation and temperature, and its absorption of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide. Climate models indicate that this change in atmospheric circulation has been caused partly by the increase in greenhouse gases, and partly by the ozone hole. Greenhouse gas levels are very likely to continue to increase over the next fifty years, but the ozone hole is expected to start to recover, due to international regulation of emissions of the chemicals which destroy ozone. However, it is very uncertain when and how quickly the ozone hole will start to recover, and different computer simulations produce very different results. Previous climate model predictions of future climate change have generally either assumed no recovery of the ozone hole, or they have used a single prediction of future ozone change. We plan to use a state-of-the-art climate model, developed at the Met Office, to derive a range of predictions of future climate change which take account of our uncertainty in future ozone change. We will start by comparing simulated changes in atmospheric circulation over the past 25 years with climate observations to help us understand the causes of past trends. We will also examine the effects of these trends on the climate of the Southern Hemisphere, and on the circulation of the Southern Ocean. We will then test a range of predictions of ozone change. These predictions are made using computer simulations of changes in atmospheric chemistry, and we will test them by comparing simulations of past ozone changes with observations made by satellite and balloon. Once we have identified the four most realistic simulations of past ozone change, we will use the latest Met Office climate model to simulate the climate response to each of the four corresponding scenarios of future ozone change over the next 45 years. Future greenhouse gas changes will also be specified in the climate model. We will use these climate model simulations to predict the likely range of possible future circulation changes in the Southern Hemisphere, and the impacts of these changes on the atmosphere and ocean. If historical circulation trends are reversed by ozone recovery, such impacts could include enhanced warming over Antarctica, and hence faster ice melt and sea level rise; enhanced warming and drying of Australia; and changes in the absorption of carbon dioxide by the ocean.

在过去的30年里，南大洋周围的西风变得越来越强，大气环流的这种变化导致南极洲大部分地区变冷，南极半岛和南美洲南部变暖。最近的研究表明，这一趋势也影响了海洋环流和温度，以及海洋对温室气体二氧化碳的吸收。气候模型表明，大气环流的这种变化部分是由温室气体的增加造成的，部分是由臭氧洞造成的。温室气体水平很可能在未来50年继续增加，但由于国际上对破坏臭氧层的化学物质的排放进行了管制，预计臭氧空洞将开始恢复。然而，臭氧洞何时以及以多快的速度开始恢复是非常不确定的，不同的计算机模拟产生了非常不同的结果。以前的气候模型对未来气候变化的预测通常要么假设臭氧洞不会恢复，要么使用对未来臭氧变化的单一预测。我们计划使用气象局开发的最先进的气候模型，来预测未来的气候变化，并考虑到未来臭氧变化的不确定性。我们将首先将过去25年来模拟的大气环流变化与气候观测进行比较，以帮助我们了解过去趋势的原因。我们还将研究这些趋势对南半球气候和南大洋环流的影响。然后，我们将测试一系列臭氧变化的预测。这些预测是使用计算机模拟大气化学变化做出的，我们将通过比较过去臭氧变化的模拟与卫星和气球的观测结果来测试它们。一旦我们确定了过去臭氧变化的四个最现实的模拟，我们将使用最新的气象局气候模型来模拟未来45年臭氧变化的四个相应情景中的每一个的气候响应。未来的温室气体变化也将在气候模型中详细说明。我们将使用这些气候模式模拟来预测南半球未来可能发生的环流变化的可能范围，以及这些变化对大气和海洋的影响。如果历史上的环流趋势因臭氧恢复而逆转，这种影响可能包括：南极洲的升温加剧，从而加快冰融化和海平面上升;澳大利亚的升温和干燥加剧;海洋对二氧化碳的吸收发生变化。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（10）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Mixed Layer Temperature Response to the Southern Annular Mode: Mechanisms and Model Representation

DOI：
10.1175/2009jcli2976.1
发表时间：
2010-02
期刊：
Journal of Climate
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
J. Screen;N. Gillett;A. Karpechko;D. Stevens
通讯作者：
J. Screen;N. Gillett;A. Karpechko;D. Stevens

Climate Impacts of the Southern Annular Mode Simulated by the CMIP3 Models

DOI：
10.1175/2009jcli2788.1
发表时间：
2009-07
期刊：
Journal of Climate
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
A. Karpechko;N. Gillett;G. Marshall;J. Screen
通讯作者：
A. Karpechko;N. Gillett;G. Marshall;J. Screen

Quantitative assessment of Southern Hemisphere ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations

化学气候模型模拟中南半球臭氧的定量评估

DOI：
10.5194/acp-10-1385-2010
发表时间：
2010
期刊：
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Karpechko A
通讯作者：
Karpechko A

Attribution of polar warming to human influence

DOI：
10.1038/ngeo338
发表时间：
2008-11-01
期刊：
NATURE GEOSCIENCE
影响因子：
18.3
作者：
Gillett, Nathan P.;Stone, Daithi A.;Jones, Philip D.
通讯作者：
Jones, Philip D.

Attribution of observed changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature

DOI：
10.5194/acp-11-599-2011
发表时间：
2010-07
期刊：
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
N. Gillett;H. Akiyoshi;S. Bekki;P. Braesicke;V. Eyring;R. Garcia;A. Karpechko;C. McLinden;O. Morgenstern;D. Plummer;J. Pyle;E. Rozanov;J. Scinocca;K. Shibata
通讯作者：
N. Gillett;H. Akiyoshi;S. Bekki;P. Braesicke;V. Eyring;R. Garcia;A. Karpechko;C. McLinden;O. Morgenstern;D. Plummer;J. Pyle;E. Rozanov;J. Scinocca;K. Shibata