Developmental Methodology as Applied to Research on Adolescent Alcohol Use

描述(由申请人提供)：这项独立科学家奖(K02)申请的目的是为候选人提供受保护的时间来进行酒精使用的开始和进展的研究。最近开发出了许多强大的分析方法和现成的专门软件，允许对变化假设进行实证检验，但最近对统计进展的强调可能会转移人们对理论的注意力。从经验数据中推断与年龄相关的变化需要注意设计、测量和分析方面的问题。这些问题影响到统计模型和发展理论之间的一致性，我们有效测试发展理论的能力受到了威胁。这项提案试图通过应用新出现的建模发展方法来说明和解决将理论转化为经验结果时出现的关键挑战。其中包括发育(非)连续性、异型连续性、协变量建模方法、时间尺度的起源和度量以及队列顺序设计。开发方法将被应用于四个关于未成年人饮酒的前瞻性数据集：三个从青春期到年轻成年的二级数据集，以及候选人由美国国家航空航天局资助的研究“未成年饮酒者早期饮酒里程碑的开始和进展”(R01 AA016838)，这是一项探索罗德岛州1,023名中学生早期饮酒生涯特征的研究，数据收集和数据处理正在进行中。次级数据集，全国青年纵向调查(NLSY97)，密歇根州纵向研究(MLS)和明尼苏达州双胞胎家庭研究(MTFS)，在采样、跟踪间隔和持续时间、酒精参与的可操作性以及评估的风险因素类型方面提供了优势。这四个数据集将共同解决重要的实质性研究问题，即饮酒前体和风险因素在个人社会背景和更广泛的背景水平上的预测效用，以及高风险饮酒的结果。此外，还将研究不同年龄、不同饮酒阶段以及重要的人生转变的启动和进展的不同程度。职业发展活动采取的形式是与数量心理学和发展精神病理学领域的国家公认顾问进行研究合作，这些顾问定期制定、调整和采用各种方法，利用前瞻性数据解决发展问题。这些合作将产生联合手稿，并将为广泛的迭代互动提供支持。正式的培训活动包括参加研讨会、教学读物，并以复习论文、座谈会和专题会议的形式向实地传播。到获奖期结束时，候选人将拥有将最先进的新兴分析技术与发展理论相结合的技能，以大幅提高我们对酒精启动和使用进展的病因的知识，并将成为变化模型应用方面的领先专家。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The goal of this independent scientist award (K02) application is to provide the Candidate with protected time to conduct research on initiation and progression of alcohol use. A host of powerful analytic methods and readily available specialized software have recently been developed that allow for empirical testing of hypotheses of change, but recent emphasis on statistical advances may divert attention from theory. Making inferences about age-related changes from empirical data requires attention to issues of design, measurement, and analysis. To the degree that the issues affect the correspondence between statistical models and theories of development, our ability to validly test developmental theory is threatened. This proposal seeks to illustrate and address key challenges that arise when translating theory to empirical findings by applying newly emerging methods for modeling development. These include developmental (dis)continuity, heterotypic continuity, approaches to modeling covariates, origin and metric of the time scale, and cohort sequential design. Developmental methods will be applied to four prospective datasets on underage alcohol use: three secondary datasets that span adolescence through young adulthood and the Candidate's NIAAA-funded study, "Initiation and Progression through Early Drinking Milestones in Underage Drinkers" (R01 AA016838), a study exploring characteristics of the early drinking career in a multi-cohort sample of 1,023 Rhode Island middle schoolers, for which data collection is ongoing and data processing is underway. The secondary datasets, the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97), the Michigan Longitudinal Study (MLS), and the Minnesota Twin Family Study (MTFS), offer advantages with regard to sampling, follow-up interval and duration, operationalization of alcohol involvement, and type of risk factors assessed. Together, these four datasets will address important substantive research questions about the predictive utility of drinking precursors and risk factors at the level of the individual social context, and broader context, as well as outcomes of risky alcohol use. In addition, the extent to which initiation and progression vary by age, across stage of alcohol involvement, and over important life transitions will be examined. Career development activities take the form of research collaborations with nationally recognized consultants in the fields of quantitative psychology and developmental psychopathology that regularly develop, adapt, and employ methods to address questions of development using prospective data. These collaborations will result in joint manuscripts and will provide support for extensive, iterative interactions. Formal training activities include workshop attendance, didactic readings, and dissemination to the field in the form of review papers, symposia, and topical meetings. By the end of the award period, the Candidate will have the skills to bridge state-of-the-art emerging analytic techniques with developmental theory to substantially advance our knowledge of the etiology of alcohol initiation and progression of use and will be a leading expert in the application of models of change.