Developmental Methodology as Applied to Research on Adolescent Alcohol Use

描述（由申请人提供）：本独立科学家奖（K 02）申请的目标是为候选人提供受保护的时间，以进行关于酒精使用的开始和进展的研究。最近开发了一系列强大的分析方法和现成的专业软件，可以对变化的假设进行实证检验，但最近对统计进展的强调可能会转移对理论的注意力。从经验数据中推断与年龄有关的变化需要注意设计，测量和分析问题。这些问题影响了统计模型和发展理论之间的对应关系，我们有效检验发展理论的能力受到了威胁。该提案旨在说明和解决将理论转化为实证研究结果时出现的关键挑战，通过应用新兴的建模开发方法。这些措施包括发展（不）连续性，异型连续性，方法建模协变量，起源和度量的时间尺度，和队列序贯设计。开发方法将应用于未成年人饮酒用途：的四个前瞻性数据集：三个次要数据集，从青少年到成年早期，以及候选人的NIAAA资助的研究，“未成年饮酒者早期饮酒的启动和进展”（R 01 AA 016838），一项在1,023名罗得岛中学生的多队列样本中探索早期饮酒生涯特征的研究，数据收集和数据处理正在进行中。第二数据集，全国青年纵向调查（NLSY 97），密歇根州纵向研究（MLS），明尼苏达州双胞胎家庭研究（MTFS），提供了关于采样，随访时间间隔和持续时间，酒精参与的操作化，以及评估的风险因素类型的优势。总之，这四个数据集将解决重要的实质性研究问题，即在个人社会背景和更广泛的背景下，饮酒前体和风险因素的预测效用，以及危险酒精使用的结果。此外，在何种程度上启动和进展不同的年龄，跨阶段的酒精参与，并在重要的生活过渡将进行检查。职业发展活动采取的研究合作的形式与国家认可的顾问在定量心理学和发展心理病理学领域，定期开发，调整和采用的方法来解决发展问题，使用前瞻性数据。这些合作将产生联合手稿，并将为广泛的迭代互动提供支持。正式的培训活动包括参加讲习班、教学读物以及以评论论文、专题讨论会和专题会议的形式向实地传播。在奖励期结束时，候选人将有能力将最先进的新兴分析技术与发展理论联系起来，以大大提高我们对酒精开始和使用进展的病因学的认识，并将成为应用变化模型的领先专家。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The goal of this independent scientist award (K02) application is to provide the Candidate with protected time to conduct research on initiation and progression of alcohol use. A host of powerful analytic methods and readily available specialized software have recently been developed that allow for empirical testing of hypotheses of change, but recent emphasis on statistical advances may divert attention from theory. Making inferences about age-related changes from empirical data requires attention to issues of design, measurement, and analysis. To the degree that the issues affect the correspondence between statistical models and theories of development, our ability to validly test developmental theory is threatened. This proposal seeks to illustrate and address key challenges that arise when translating theory to empirical findings by applying newly emerging methods for modeling development. These include developmental (dis)continuity, heterotypic continuity, approaches to modeling covariates, origin and metric of the time scale, and cohort sequential design. Developmental methods will be applied to four prospective datasets on underage alcohol use: three secondary datasets that span adolescence through young adulthood and the Candidate's NIAAA-funded study, "Initiation and Progression through Early Drinking Milestones in Underage Drinkers" (R01 AA016838), a study exploring characteristics of the early drinking career in a multi-cohort sample of 1,023 Rhode Island middle schoolers, for which data collection is ongoing and data processing is underway. The secondary datasets, the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97), the Michigan Longitudinal Study (MLS), and the Minnesota Twin Family Study (MTFS), offer advantages with regard to sampling, follow-up interval and duration, operationalization of alcohol involvement, and type of risk factors assessed. Together, these four datasets will address important substantive research questions about the predictive utility of drinking precursors and risk factors at the level of the individual social context, and broader context, as well as outcomes of risky alcohol use. In addition, the extent to which initiation and progression vary by age, across stage of alcohol involvement, and over important life transitions will be examined. Career development activities take the form of research collaborations with nationally recognized consultants in the fields of quantitative psychology and developmental psychopathology that regularly develop, adapt, and employ methods to address questions of development using prospective data. These collaborations will result in joint manuscripts and will provide support for extensive, iterative interactions. Formal training activities include workshop attendance, didactic readings, and dissemination to the field in the form of review papers, symposia, and topical meetings. By the end of the award period, the Candidate will have the skills to bridge state-of-the-art emerging analytic techniques with developmental theory to substantially advance our knowledge of the etiology of alcohol initiation and progression of use and will be a leading expert in the application of models of change.