Developmental Methodology as Applied to Research on Adolescent Alcohol Use

描述（由申请人提供）：这个独立科学家奖（K02）申请的目的是为候选人提供受保护的时间来研究酒精使用的开始和进展。最近已经开发了许多强大的分析方法和现成的专门软件，可以对变化的假设进行实证检验，但最近对统计进步的强调可能会转移人们对理论的注意力。从经验数据推断年龄相关的变化需要注意设计、测量和分析问题。由于这些问题影响了统计模型和发展理论之间的一致性，我们有效检验发展理论的能力受到了威胁。本提案旨在通过应用新兴的建模开发方法，说明并解决将理论转化为实证发现时出现的关键挑战。这些包括发育（非）连续性，异型连续性，协变量建模方法，时间尺度的起源和度量，以及队列顺序设计。开发方法将应用于四个关于未成年人饮酒的前瞻性数据集：三个从青春期到青年期的次要数据集，以及候选人的niaaa资助的研究，“未成年饮酒者早期饮酒里程碑的开始和进展”（R01 AA016838），一项探索1023名罗德岛中学生早期饮酒生涯特征的多队列样本的研究，数据收集和数据处理正在进行中。次要数据集，全国青年纵向调查（NLSY97）、密歇根纵向研究（MLS）和明尼苏达双胞胎家庭研究（MTFS），在抽样、随访间隔和持续时间、酒精参与的操作化和评估的风险因素类型方面具有优势。总之，这四个数据集将解决重要的实质性研究问题，即在个人社会背景和更广泛的背景下，饮酒前体和风险因素的预测效用，以及风险酒精使用的结果。此外，还将研究酒精中毒的发生和发展在多大程度上随年龄、涉入酒精的各个阶段以及重要的人生转变而变化。职业发展活动采取与定量心理学和发展精神病理学领域的国家认可顾问进行研究合作的形式，这些顾问定期开发、调整和采用方法，利用前瞻性数据解决发展问题。这些合作将产生联合手稿，并将为广泛的、迭代的相互作用提供支持。正式的培训活动包括参加研讨会、教学阅读、以评论论文、专题讨论会和专题会议的形式向该领域传播。在奖励期结束时，候选人将具备将最先进的新兴分析技术与发展理论相结合的技能，从而大大提高我们对酒精开始和使用进展的病因学的了解，并将成为应用变化模型的主要专家。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The goal of this independent scientist award (K02) application is to provide the Candidate with protected time to conduct research on initiation and progression of alcohol use. A host of powerful analytic methods and readily available specialized software have recently been developed that allow for empirical testing of hypotheses of change, but recent emphasis on statistical advances may divert attention from theory. Making inferences about age-related changes from empirical data requires attention to issues of design, measurement, and analysis. To the degree that the issues affect the correspondence between statistical models and theories of development, our ability to validly test developmental theory is threatened. This proposal seeks to illustrate and address key challenges that arise when translating theory to empirical findings by applying newly emerging methods for modeling development. These include developmental (dis)continuity, heterotypic continuity, approaches to modeling covariates, origin and metric of the time scale, and cohort sequential design. Developmental methods will be applied to four prospective datasets on underage alcohol use: three secondary datasets that span adolescence through young adulthood and the Candidate's NIAAA-funded study, "Initiation and Progression through Early Drinking Milestones in Underage Drinkers" (R01 AA016838), a study exploring characteristics of the early drinking career in a multi-cohort sample of 1,023 Rhode Island middle schoolers, for which data collection is ongoing and data processing is underway. The secondary datasets, the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97), the Michigan Longitudinal Study (MLS), and the Minnesota Twin Family Study (MTFS), offer advantages with regard to sampling, follow-up interval and duration, operationalization of alcohol involvement, and type of risk factors assessed. Together, these four datasets will address important substantive research questions about the predictive utility of drinking precursors and risk factors at the level of the individual social context, and broader context, as well as outcomes of risky alcohol use. In addition, the extent to which initiation and progression vary by age, across stage of alcohol involvement, and over important life transitions will be examined. Career development activities take the form of research collaborations with nationally recognized consultants in the fields of quantitative psychology and developmental psychopathology that regularly develop, adapt, and employ methods to address questions of development using prospective data. These collaborations will result in joint manuscripts and will provide support for extensive, iterative interactions. Formal training activities include workshop attendance, didactic readings, and dissemination to the field in the form of review papers, symposia, and topical meetings. By the end of the award period, the Candidate will have the skills to bridge state-of-the-art emerging analytic techniques with developmental theory to substantially advance our knowledge of the etiology of alcohol initiation and progression of use and will be a leading expert in the application of models of change.