Quantifying Heterogeneities in Dengue Virus Transmission Dynamics

量化登革热病毒传播动力学的异质性

• 批准号: 8666959
• 负责人: THOMAS WALLACE SCOTT
• 金额: $ 139.3万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA AT DAVIS
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-05-01 至 2019-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8666959
• 关键词: Accounting; Address; Aedes; Affect; Antiviral Agents; Arboviruses; Area; Bayesian Modeling; Behavior; Behavioral; Biological Models; Blood; Cellular Phone; Clinic; Clinical; Cohort Studies; Communities; Country; Culicidae; Data; Dengue; Dengue Virus; Detection; Development; Disease; Epidemiology; Evaluation; Exposure to; Failure; Foundations; Health; Heterogeneity; Human; Human Virus; Individual; Infection; Insecta; Instruction; Intervention; Investigation; Joints; Knowledge; Literature; Location; Measures; Medical; Medical Research; Methods; Molecular; Monitor; Nurses; Participant; Perception; Persons; Peru; Population; Prevention; Prevention program; Prevention strategy; Principal Investigator; Process; Prospective Studies; Public Health; Relative (related person); Research; Research Infrastructure; Research Project Grants; Risk; Role; Running; Science; Series; Severities; Severity of illness; Source; System; Technology; Temperature; Testing; Thailand; Time; Touch sensation; Variant; Vector-transmitted infectious disease; Viremia; Virulence; Virus; Virus Diseases; Work; base; behavioral/social science; burden of illness; design; disease transmission; disorder prevention; epidemiology study; experience; exposed human population; feeding; human morbidity; human mortality; improved; innovation; insight; mathematical model; novel; pathogen; prevent; programs; public health relevance; research study; response; simulation; success; theories; transmission process; vaccine delivery; vector control; vector transmission

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Current knowledge of dengue virus (DENV) transmission provides, at best, only a partial understanding of a complicated and dynamic system with a public health track record that has more failures than successes. An important part ofthe problems is that the foundation for contemporary interventions includes a series of longstanding, but untested, assumptions based on a relatively small portion ofthe human population; i.e., people who are convenient to study because they manifest clinically apparent disease. Approaching dengue from the perspective of people with overt illness has produced an extensive body of valuable literature. It has not, however, fully embraced heterogeneities in virus transmission dynamics that are increasingly recognized as key missing information in the struggle to control the most important insect-transmitted viral infection of humans. Only in the last 20 years there have been significant efforts to carry out comprehensive longitudinal dengue studies. Our research team was integrally involved in two prominent longitudinal dengue research projects in Iquitos, Peru and Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand. Our proposed POl represents the next crucial step in this line of inquiry. By studying people across the entire continuum of disease, including people with clinically inapparent and mild infections, we aim to quantify heterogeneities in human variables that affect DENV transmission dynamics and prevention. To do this, we will exploit the infrastructure we assembled over the past 14 years at our Iquitos study area. Our POl aims to help fill the void between understanding transmission dynamics and effective disease prevention by defining, for the first time, the contribution of the understudied majority of DENV infected people (the estimated 294 million with inapparent and mild infections) and the contributions of epidemiological, entomological, and socio-behavioral sources of heterogeneity to the dynamics of DENV transmission. By accounting for factors underlying variation in each person's contribution to transmission we will be able to better determine the type and extent of effort needed to prevent virus transmission and, thus, provide new insights for improved dengue prevention. RELEVANCE (See instructions): An estimated 390 million people in 128 at risk countries experience a DENV infection each year. Dengue viruses cause more human morbidity and mortality than any other arthropod-borne virus. It is the most rapidly advancing vector-borne disease in the world and it serves as a model system for transmission of vector-borne pathogens in general. An improved understanding of DENV transmission dynamics, concepts, and theory will fill critical knowledge gaps and significantly improve disease prevention programs.

描述（由申请人提供）：当前对登革热病毒（DENV）传播的知识充其量只能提供对具有公共卫生往绩的复杂和动态系统的部分理解，其公共卫生记录的失败多于成功。问题的一个重要部分是，当代干预措施的基础包括一系列基于相对较小部分人口的长期但未测试的假设。即，由于表现出临床明显的疾病，因此很方便学习的人。从患有明显疾病的人的角度来接近登革热，产生了广泛的宝贵文学作品。但是，它并没有完全接受病毒传播动力学的异质性，这些动态越来越被认为是控制人类最重要的昆虫传播病毒感染的斗争中的关键信息。只有在过去的20年中，才做出了巨大的努力，以进行全面的纵向登革热研究。我们的研究团队在秘鲁Iquitos和泰国的Kamphaeng Phet的两个著名纵向登革热研究项目中积极参与。我们提出的POL代表了这一探究线中的下一个关键步骤。通过研究整个疾病连续性的人，包括临床上不熟悉和轻度感染的人，我们旨在量化影响DENV传播动态和预防的人类变量的异质性。为此，我们将利用过去14年来在Iquitos研究区域组装的基础设施。我们的POL的目的是通过第一次定义了经过研究的大多数DENV感染者的贡献（估计有2.94亿人（估计有2.94亿）具有不适中和轻度感染的人），以及流行病学，昆虫学，昆虫学，昆虫学，社会行为态度的贡献，以及netyv nementics odentimics odentimics ofentysic fornysics ofentimics ofentimics ofentimics ofentimics ofentimics ofentimics odentics odentics odentics fornysicics旨在帮助填补空隙。通过考虑每个人对传播贡献的差异的因素，我们将能够更好地确定防止病毒传播所需的努力类型和范围，从而为改善登革热预防提供新的见解。相关性（请参阅说明）：估计每年有128名在风险国家中的3.9亿人患DENV感染。与任何其他节肢动物传播病毒相比，登革热病毒引起人类的发病率和死亡率更多。它是世界上最迅速的媒介传播疾病，它是传播媒介传播病原体的模型系统。对DENV传播动态，概念和理论的深入了解将填补关键的知识差距，并显着改善疾病预防计划。