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Evidence to improve heat warning effectiveness in reducing morbidity and mortality.

提高高温预警降低发病率和死亡率的有效性的证据。

基本信息

批准号：
10292909
负责人：
GREGORY A WELLENIUS
金额：
$ 60.53万
依托单位：
BOSTON UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CAMPUS
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2019-01-01 至 2023-10-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10292909
关键词：
Age Air Conditioning Cessation of life Characteristics Classification Communities Country Data Effectiveness Emergency Situation Emergency department visit Enrollment Ethnic Origin Event Exposure to Geography Goals Government Agencies Government Officials Health Health Benefit Heat Stress Disorders Hospitalization Humidity Individual Insurance Carriers Knowledge Local Government Location Medicare Methods Morbidity - disease rate Outcome Participant Persons Policy Maker Population Heterogeneity Predisposition Prevalence Public Health Race Research Personnel Risk Sample Size Seasons Services Socioeconomic Status Structure Temperature United States Weather age group attributable mortality base beneficiary burden of illness comparative evidence base extreme heat human old age (65+)improved indexing innovation insight learning strategy machine learning method mortality mortality risk novel prevent public health emergency response sex statistical learning

项目摘要

Project Summary/Abstract While exposure to high ambient temperature (i.e., heat) has long been recognized as a threat to public health, the burden of illness and death attributable to heat in the US remains high. In an effort to reduce heat- related mortality and morbidity, the US National Weather Service (NWS) issues heat alerts in advance of forecasted extreme heat events to communicate these risks to the public and government officials. However, it is largely unknown: (1) what are the optimal metrics of heat stress to inform when to issue heat alerts, (2) how effective are heat alerts in protecting the public’s health and (3) what factors make heat alerts comparatively more or less effective in some places or in some people versus others. In the absence of such information, we will fail to maximize the public health benefits of heat alerts. The goals of this proposal are to identify the optimal health-based and location-specific metrics for issuing heat alerts, to estimate the causal benefits of heat alerts, and to identify characteristics of individuals or communities associated with the greatest reductions in morbidity or mortality following heat alerts. Specifically, using national claims data on deaths and hospital admissions among the large, geographically diverse population of >60 million US Medicare beneficiaries age ≥65 years enrolled between 2001 and 2015, and on emergency department visits among >130 million participants of all ages from one of the nation’s largest health insurers, we propose to: (Aim 1) Use novel machine learning methods to identify the heat metric(s) (e.g., heat index, ambient temperature, spatial synoptic classification, wet bulb globe temperature, absolute humidity) that best predict excess heat-related deaths, emergency hospitalizations, and emergency departments visits in each location, (Aim 2) estimate the causal effects of NWS heat alerts on rates of mortality, hospitalizations, and emergency department visits across the country and within groups stratified by health outcome, sex, and age group, and (Aim 3) assess how the benefits of heat alerts vary across characteristics of communities. Key innovations of this proposal include a very large sample size, geographic diversity encompassing the entire US, the assessment across multiple health endpoints and age groups, and the use of sophisticated methods in statistical learning and causal inference. Collectively, the findings from this proposal will provide meteorologists, public health and emergency management officials, and local policy-makers with critical information to better protect public health during extreme heat events and guide more targeted future research on strategies to mitigate the adverse health effects of heat.

项目总结/文摘

项目成果

期刊论文数量（18）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Association Between the 2021 Heat Wave in Portland, Oregon, and Seattle, Washington, and Emergency Department Visits.

2021 年俄勒冈州波特兰和华盛顿州西雅图的热浪与急诊科就诊之间的关联。

DOI：
10.1001/jama.2022.20665
发表时间：
2022
期刊：
JAMA
影响因子：
0
作者：
Nori-Sarma,Amruta;Milando,Chad;Weinberger,KateR;Hess,JeremyJ;Errett,NicoleA;Wellenius,GregoryA
通讯作者：
Wellenius,GregoryA

Ambient heat and risks of emergency department visits among adults in the United States: time stratified case crossover study.

DOI：
10.1136/bmj-2021-065653
发表时间：
2021-11-24
期刊：
BMJ-BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL
影响因子：
105.7
作者：
Sun, Shengzhi;Weinberger, Kate R.;Nori-Sarma, Amruta;Spangler, Keith R.;Sun, Yuantong;Dominici, Francesca;Wellenius, Gregory A.
通讯作者：
Wellenius, Gregory A.

Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature, Universal Thermal Climate Index, and Other Heat Metrics for US Counties, 2000-2020.

DOI：
10.1038/s41597-022-01405-3
发表时间：
2022-06-17
期刊：
SCIENTIFIC DATA
影响因子：
9.8
作者：
Spangler, Keith R.;Liang, Shixin;Wellenius, Gregory A.
通讯作者：
Wellenius, Gregory A.

Provision of Air Conditioning and Heat-Related Mortality in Texas Prisons.

在德克萨斯州监狱中提供空调和与热有关的死亡率。

DOI：
10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.39849
发表时间：
2022-11-01
期刊：
JAMA network open
影响因子：
13.8
作者：
Skarha J;Dominick A;Spangler K;Dosa D;Rich JD;Savitz DA;Zanobetti A
通讯作者：
Zanobetti A

Association Between Ambient Heat and Risk of Emergency Department Visits for Mental Health Among US Adults, 2010 to 2019.

DOI：
10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2021.4369
发表时间：
2022-04-01
期刊：
JAMA psychiatry
影响因子：
25.8
作者：
Nori-Sarma A;Sun S;Sun Y;Spangler KR;Oblath R;Galea S;Gradus JL;Wellenius GA
通讯作者：
Wellenius GA