Stability and Change of Amish Populations in the 21st Century

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DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The goal of the proposed research is to describe and analyze patterns of demographic stability and change among the Amish in North America. Since 1900, the Amish population in the United States and Canada has grown from approximately 5000 to over 200,000. Due to high fertility and low rates of leaving the faith the Amish population is doubling approximately every 20 years. To accommodate their rapid rate of population growth the Amish have progressively turned to occupations other than farming, established new communities in many different regions of the country, and witnessed an increased diversity between religious subgroups. These kinds of social and economic changes within Amish society have the potential to impact patterns of childrearing, marriage, fertility, migration and health. Specific aims for the proposed project include: (1) constructing an historical overview of Amish community expansion over the past century, (2) examining the uniformity and diversity found in current Amish patterns of baptism, marriage and fertility among a large number of communities throughout North America, (3) analyzing how these patterns may have changed over time and (4) investigating potential consequences of change for the health and well-being of Amish families and children. Placing our analyses within a lifecourse framework, we utilize both qualitative and quantitative data from multiple sources. Our community level data, taken from Amish newspapers and other historical and contemporary written accounts, provides a contextual backdrop against which our individual-level findings can be viewed. Over the past few years we have also been constructing a unique data set that includes individual level demographic data taken from Amish directories from all over the country. This data set currently includes information from almost 80 percent of the States in which the Amish lived in 2003, and from close to 70 percent of Amish church districts existing at that time. The proposed study leaves us poised to make a distinctive contribution to our understanding of Amish populations today, as well as the demographic changes that have occurred over recent decades. The doubling of the Amish population every 20 years due to high fertility may pose health risks to both mothers and children. Patterns of migration stemming from rapid population growth also present unique challenges to local leaders, health, medical and other service providers at the local level.