An integrated system dynamics model for analyzing behaviour of the social-economic-climatic system

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The global climate is now changing due to human activities and is projected to change even more rapidly. The consequences of climate change could be devastating, with increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations resulting in large-scale, high-impact, non-linear, and potentially abrupt and irreversible changes in physical and biological systems. Climate models help (a) to improve our understanding of the physical processes that drive the climate system, to identify the relationships and feedbacks that operate within and between climate system components, and to predict future changes in regional and global climate, (b) to clarify the connections between human actions and the Earth-system, and (c) help policy-makers to enact effective policies and programs to address and to adapt to climate change. Global climate models offer the best approach to understanding the physical climate system by capturing, at various resolutions, the basic behaviour of the physical processes that drive the climate. However, these models focus only on natural systems, and do not represent socio-economic systems that affect and are affected by natural systems. The most common approach to combining socio-economic and biophysical systems involves applying projected trends (scenarios) to 'drive' the climate model. The question to be addressed in this research is: "How do the expected paths of climate, environmental, and economic variables change when feedbacks between the economy and the environment are more fully modeled than in previous work?" The proposed research will provide improved representations of the physical processes involved in the climate system and carbon cycle, and will include the socio-economic sectors and activities that govern interactions with the biophysical system, especially those that influence or control anthropogenic emissions. This research will help to identify the importance of nonlinearities and feedbacks in determining the behaviour of the social-economic-climatic system. It will also provide the Canadian government with a scientifically credible tool useful for policy: a system dynamics-based climate-economy model, connecting science, governance, economics, and the environment.