Mechanisms of herbivore distribution under predation risk

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This objective of this research is to provide a mechanistic understanding of the spatial organization of herbivores under predation risk. We will conduct research to identify the main determinants of the spatio-temporal dynamics of bison living under the risk of wolf predation at the interface between parklands and agricultural lands. We will then use this information to reduce wildlife-human conflicts by modifying connectivity in a resource patch network. The first step will be to characterize spatio-temporal patterns of predation risk within the bison range. To do so, we will radio-collared wolves from four different packs located within the bison range. Expected space use patterns by wolves will be assessed based on advection-diffusion modeling that will account for landscape structure, together with the location of neighbouring wolf packs and potential prey. The second step will be to also follow bison also equipped with GPS collars to evaluate their movement decisions in this risky environment. We will then use graph theory to pin point parts of the resource patch network that, if impacted, should have strong and predictable effects on bison distribution. On this basis, we will carry out a landscape-scale experiment on the network by local - yet strategic - habitat modifications (e.g., by blocking trail sections, changing resource availability in meadows) to reduce cross-boundary movements by altering connectivity patterns and reorienting bison away from the park's boundaries. The proposed research is innovative because it will go beyond the simple description of distribution patterns and resource selection by revealing the behavioural mechanisms involved in the selection process. The approach to influencing animal distribution will combine rigorous science and adaptive management, which will speed the development of innovative and effective management actions of conservation significance. Free-ranging plains bison populations are threatened in Canada (COSEWIC, May 2004). Cross-boundary movements may jeopardize the free-ranging nature of these bison. Our work will help bison management by increasing our ability to predict and control their distribution.