Mechanisms of herbivore distribution under predation risk

本研究的目的是提供捕食风险下食草动物空间组织的机制理解。我们将开展研究，以确定在公园地和农田交界面，在狼捕食风险下生活的野牛的时空动态的主要决定因素。然后，我们将利用这些信息通过修改资源补丁网络中的连通性来减少野生动物与人类的冲突。第一步将是描述野牛范围内捕食风险的时空模式。为了做到这一点，我们将用无线电圈住野牛活动范围内四个不同狼群的狼。狼的预期空间使用模式将基于平流-扩散模型进行评估，该模型将考虑景观结构，以及邻近狼群和潜在猎物的位置。第二步是跟踪同样配备GPS项圈的野牛，以评估它们在这种危险环境下的行动决策。然后，我们将使用图论来确定资源补丁网络的部分，如果受到影响，应该对野牛的分布产生强烈和可预测的影响。在此基础上，我们将在网络上进行景观尺度的实验，通过局部但战略性的栖息地改变（例如，通过阻断步道部分，改变草甸的资源可用性）来减少跨界运动，通过改变连接模式和将野牛重新定向到远离公园边界的地方。拟议的研究具有创新性，因为它将超越对分配模式和资源选择的简单描述，揭示选择过程中涉及的行为机制。影响动物分布的方法将严格的科学与适应性管理相结合，这将加快具有保护意义的创新和有效的管理行动的发展。加拿大自由放养的平原野牛种群受到威胁（COSEWIC， 2004年5月）。跨界迁徙可能危及这些野牛自由放养的特性。我们的工作将通过提高我们预测和控制野牛分布的能力来帮助野牛管理。

This objective of this research is to provide a mechanistic understanding of the spatial organization of herbivores under predation risk. We will conduct research to identify the main determinants of the spatio-temporal dynamics of bison living under the risk of wolf predation at the interface between parklands and agricultural lands. We will then use this information to reduce wildlife-human conflicts by modifying connectivity in a resource patch network. The first step will be to characterize spatio-temporal patterns of predation risk within the bison range. To do so, we will radio-collared wolves from four different packs located within the bison range. Expected space use patterns by wolves will be assessed based on advection-diffusion modeling that will account for landscape structure, together with the location of neighbouring wolf packs and potential prey. The second step will be to also follow bison also equipped with GPS collars to evaluate their movement decisions in this risky environment. We will then use graph theory to pin point parts of the resource patch network that, if impacted, should have strong and predictable effects on bison distribution. On this basis, we will carry out a landscape-scale experiment on the network by local - yet strategic - habitat modifications (e.g., by blocking trail sections, changing resource availability in meadows) to reduce cross-boundary movements by altering connectivity patterns and reorienting bison away from the park's boundaries. The proposed research is innovative because it will go beyond the simple description of distribution patterns and resource selection by revealing the behavioural mechanisms involved in the selection process. The approach to influencing animal distribution will combine rigorous science and adaptive management, which will speed the development of innovative and effective management actions of conservation significance. Free-ranging plains bison populations are threatened in Canada (COSEWIC, May 2004). Cross-boundary movements may jeopardize the free-ranging nature of these bison. Our work will help bison management by increasing our ability to predict and control their distribution.