Prediction markets: information procurement from selfish agents in standard use cases

预测市场：标准用例中自私代理的信息采购

• 批准号: 402246-2011
• 负责人: Dimitrov, Stanko
• 金额: $ 1.68万
• 依托单位: University of Waterloo
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2014-01-01 至 2015-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=550841
• 关键词: Prediction; markets; information; procurement; selfish

As companies grow and work environments become more dispersed, managing and gathering information at a company level becomes a growing problem. Prediction markets are one way to aggregate information in these settings. Prediction markets are an information aggregation tool in which people trade in securities with values contingent on the outcome of a future event. For example, "Will project A be complete by the 31st of December?" could be one such security. A trader holding a "Yes" share stands to earn $1 if project A is completed by the 31st of December, otherwise she earns nothing.

随着公司的发展和工作环境变得更加分散，在公司级别管理和收集信息成为一个日益严重的问题。预测市场是在这些环境中收集信息的一种方式。预测市场是一种信息聚合工具，人们在其中交易证券，价值取决于未来事件的结果。例如，“项目A会在12月31日之前完成吗？”可能就是这样的安全措施之一。如果项目A在12月31日前完成，持有“是”股票的交易员将赚取1美元，否则她将一文不值。