Prediction markets: information procurement from selfish agents in standard use cases

预测市场：标准用例中自私代理的信息采购

• 批准号: 402246-2011
• 负责人: Dimitrov, Stanko
• 金额: $ 1.68万
• 依托单位: University of Waterloo
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2017-01-01 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=636804
• 关键词: Prediction; markets; information; procurement; selfish

As companies grow and work environments become more dispersed, managing and gathering information at a company level becomes a growing problem. Prediction markets are one way to aggregate information in these settings. Prediction markets are an information aggregation tool in which people trade in securities with values contingent on the outcome of a future event. For example, "Will project A be complete by the 31st of December?" could be one such security. A trader holding a "Yes" share stands to earn $1 if project A is completed by the 31st of December, otherwise she earns nothing. Prediction markets are analytically known to aggregate information in settings that do not always exist in practice. We examine the viability of prediction markets in more realistic settings. In cases where current prediction markets do not aggregate information, we look for new types of prediction markets that do aggregate information. In carrying out this research we propose new analytical methods for examining prediction markets and other forms of information aggregation. The results of this study can help Canadian businesses better aggregate information within their organization.

随着公司的发展和工作环境变得更加分散，在公司层面管理和收集信息成为一个日益严重的问题。预测市场是在这些环境中汇总信息的一种方式。预测市场是一种信息汇总工具，人们在其中交易价值取决于未来事件结果的证券。例如，“项目A将在12月31日完成吗？“可能是这样的安全。如果项目A在12月31日之前完成，持有“是”股票的交易者将获得1美元的收益，否则她将一无所获。预测市场在分析上被认为是在实践中并不总是存在的环境中聚集信息。我们在更现实的环境中研究预测市场的可行性。在当前的预测市场不聚合信息的情况下，我们寻找新类型的预测市场，聚合信息。在进行这项研究时，我们提出了新的分析方法，以检查预测市场和其他形式的信息汇总。这项研究的结果可以帮助加拿大企业更好地汇总其组织内的信息。