Development of inexact factorial optimization approaches for managing compound environmental risks under interactive uncertainties

环境系统是复杂的，具有各种不确定性及其相互作用。这种复杂性可能导致难以澄清各种政策情景下的相关脆弱性、风险和责任。因此，需要发展有效的方法来解决这些困难。本研究的目的是发展不精确因子规划（IFP）方法来管理这种相互作用不确定性下的环境风险。这一目标需要(a)分析环境系统的复杂性，(b)开发相互作用不确定性下的IFP技术，(c)推进基于IFP的风险管理方法，以及(d)将已开发的IFP和风险管理方法纳入一般决策支持框架。然后将开发的方法应用于加拿大西部的环境管理。将开发先进的IFP方法，以处理空气和废物管理系统中存在的各种形式的相互作用的复杂性。事实上，因子分析被认为是一种强大的方法，可以揭示感兴趣的因素之间的多层次相互作用以及它们对系统性能的贡献。因此，将开发先进的IFP方法，以处理空气和废物管理系统中存在的各种形式的复杂性。每一种建议的方法都是在一般优化框架内的多种技术的集成；它们能够处理建模参数及其关系中的多级交互不确定性，以及它们对系统性能的影响。根据IFP的结果，将进一步发展一套脆弱性/风险评估方法，以分析相互作用的人为干预的综合影响和相关的环境风险。将通过综合方法分析空气/废物管理系统中的一些源-途径-受体过程。它们将有助于识别多重不确定因素下的脆弱性和风险，制定所需的风险预防和缓解计划，并确保对现有和即将到来的危害作出有效反应。开发的技术随后将应用于加拿大西部地区的空气和废物管理。然后可以生成在各种系统条件下控制污染物排放和保护公众健康的决策替代方案。拟议的研究将意味着环境系统分析的一系列创新技术。它将促进不精确优化、脆弱性/风险分析、多元推理及其集成方法的研究，以应对相互不确定性下环境管理的挑战。拟议的方法将允许系统地考虑到与空气和废物管理有关的一些关键的社会经济、环境和技术因素，以及它们的相互关系和有关的政策影响。它们不仅有助于实现更有效的环境管理，而且有助于扩展到与各种相互作用的不确定性有关的其他管理问题。由于减少污染的巨大成本和废物管理做法的重大社会经济影响，必须对其进行合理的设计、规划和管理。将建议的方法应用于加拿大的案例将有助于工业和政府提高管理环境问题的效率。这些技术也将使有关的利益相关者受益，为他们的环境管理实践提供不仅有效而且节省成本的方法。

Environmental systems are complicated with various uncertainties and their interactions. Such complexities can lead to difficulties in clarifying the related vulnerabilities, risks and liabilities under a variety of policy scenarios. Consequently, development of effective methodologies for tackling these difficulties is desired. The objective of this research is to develop inexact factorial programming (IFP) approaches for managing environmental risks under such interactive uncertainties. This objective entails (a) analysis of complexities in environmental systems, (b) development of IFP techniques under interactive uncertainties, (c) advancement of IFP-based risk management approaches, and (d) incorporation of the developed IFP and risk management approaches within a general decision-support framework. The developed methods will then be applied to environmental management within a western Canada context. Advanced IFP methodologies will be developed for addressing various forms of interactive complexities that exist in air and waste management systems. In fact, factorial analysis was recognized as a powerful approach for revealing multi-level interactions among factors of interest as well as their contributions to system performance. Consequently, advanced IFP methodologies will be developed for addressing various forms of complexities that exist in air and waste management systems. Each proposed methodology would be an integration of multiple techniques within a general optimization framework; they are capable of addressing multi-level interactive uncertainties in modeling parameters and their relationships, as well as their effects on system performances. Based on the IFP results, a set of vulnerability/risk assessment methods will be further developed for analyzing comprehensive effects of interactive human interventions and the associated environmental risks. A number of source-pathway-receptor processes in air/waste management systems will be analyzed through integrated approaches. They will help identify vulnerabilities and risks under multiple uncertainties, generate desired risk prevention and mitigation plans, and ensure effective responses to existing and upcoming hazards. The developed technologies will then be applied to air and waste management within a western Canada context. Decision alternatives for controlling contaminant emission and protecting public health under a variety of system conditions can then be generated. The proposed research will imply a range of innovative techniques for environmental systems analysis. It will facilitate investigations for methodologies of inexact optimization, vulnerability/risk analysis, multivariate inference and their integrations for tackling challenges of environmental management under interactive uncertainties. The proposed methodologies will allow systematic considerations for a number of critical socio-economic, environmental and technical factors that are related to air and waste management, as well as their interrelationships and the related policy implications. They will be useful for not only accomplishment of more effective environmental management but also extension to other management problems that are associated with various interactive uncertainties. The enormous pollution abatement costs and significant socio-economic impacts of waste management practices necessitate sound design, planning and management for them. Applications of the proposed methods to Canadian cases will help industries and governments to improve their effectiveness in managing environmental problems. These techniques will also benefit the related stakeholders by providing them with not only effective but also cost-saving methods for their environmental management practices.