Development of inexact factorial optimization approaches for managing compound environmental risks under interactive uncertainties

开发不精确因子优化方法来管理交互不确定性下的复合环境风险

• 批准号: RGPIN-2014-04413
• 负责人: Huang, Gordon
• 金额: $ 2.48万
• 依托单位: University of Regina
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=653982
• 关键词: Development; inexact; factorial; optimization; approaches

Environmental systems are complicated with various uncertainties and their interactions. Such complexities can lead to difficulties in clarifying the related vulnerabilities, risks and liabilities under a variety of policy scenarios. Consequently, development of effective methodologies for tackling these difficulties is desired. The objective of this research is to develop inexact factorial programming (IFP) approaches for managing environmental risks under such interactive uncertainties. This objective entails (a) analysis of complexities in environmental systems, (b) development of IFP techniques under interactive uncertainties, (c) advancement of IFP-based risk management approaches, and (d) incorporation of the developed IFP and risk management approaches within a general decision-support framework. The developed methods will then be applied to environmental management within a western Canada context.** Advanced IFP methodologies will be developed for addressing various forms of interactive complexities that exist in air and waste management systems. In fact, factorial analysis was recognized as a powerful approach for revealing multi-level interactions among factors of interest as well as their contributions to system performance. Consequently, advanced IFP methodologies will be developed for addressing various forms of complexities that exist in air and waste management systems. Each proposed methodology would be an integration of multiple techniques within a general optimization framework; they are capable of addressing multi-level interactive uncertainties in modeling parameters and their relationships, as well as their effects on system performances. Based on the IFP results, a set of vulnerability/risk assessment methods will be further developed for analyzing comprehensive effects of interactive human interventions and the associated environmental risks. A number of source-pathway-receptor processes in air/waste management systems will be analyzed through integrated approaches. They will help identify vulnerabilities and risks under multiple uncertainties, generate desired risk prevention and mitigation plans, and ensure effective responses to existing and upcoming hazards. The developed technologies will then be applied to air and waste management within a western Canada context. Decision alternatives for controlling contaminant emission and protecting public health under a variety of system conditions can then be generated.** The proposed research will imply a range of innovative techniques for environmental systems analysis. It will facilitate investigations for methodologies of inexact optimization, vulnerability/risk analysis, multivariate inference and their integrations for tackling challenges of environmental management under interactive uncertainties. The proposed methodologies will allow systematic considerations for a number of critical socio-economic, environmental and technical factors that are related to air and waste management, as well as their interrelationships and the related policy implications. They will be useful for not only accomplishment of more effective environmental management but also extension to other management problems that are associated with various interactive uncertainties.** The enormous pollution abatement costs and significant socio-economic impacts of waste management practices necessitate sound design, planning and management for them. Applications of the proposed methods to Canadian cases will help industries and governments to improve their effectiveness in managing environmental problems. These techniques will also benefit the related stakeholders by providing them with not only effective but also cost-saving methods for their environmental management practices.

环境系统非常复杂，存在各种不确定性及其相互作用。这种复杂性可能导致难以澄清各种政策情景下的相关脆弱性、风险和责任。因此，需要开发有效的方法来解决这些困难。本研究的目的是开发不精确因子规划（IFP）方法来管理此类交互不确定性下的环境风险。这一目标需要 (a) 分析环境系统的复杂性，(b) 在交互不确定性下开发 IFP 技术，(c) 改进基于 IFP 的风险管理方法，以及 (d) 将已开发的 IFP 和风险管理方法纳入一般决策支持框架。然后，所开发的方法将应用于加拿大西部地区的环境管理。** 将开发先进的 IFP 方法，以解决空气和废物管理系统中存在的各种形式的交互复杂性。事实上，因子分析被认为是揭示感兴趣因素之间的多层次相互作用及其对系统性能的贡献的有效方法。因此，将开发先进的 IFP 方法来解决空气和废物管理系统中存在的各种形式的复杂性。每种提出的方​​法都将是通用优化框架内多种技术的集成；它们能够解决建模参数及其关系中的多级交互不确定性，以及它们对系统性能的影响。基于IFP的结果，将进一步开发一套脆弱性/风险评估方法，用于分析交互式人类干预的综合影响和相关的环境风险。将通过综合方法分析空气/废物管理系统中的许多源-途径-受体过程。它们将帮助识别多种不确定性下的脆弱性和风险，制定所需的风险预防和缓解计划，并确保有效应对现有和即将发生的危害。开发的技术将应用于加拿大西部地区的空气和废物管理。然后可以生成在各种系统条件下控制污染物排放和保护公众健康的决策方案。**拟议的研究将意味着一系列用于环境系统分析的创新技术。它将促进对不精确优化、脆弱性/风险分析、多元推理及其集成方法的研究，以应对交互式不确定性下环境管理的挑战。拟议的方法将允许系统地考虑与空气和废物管理相关的许多关键社会经济、环境和技术因素，以及它们的相互关系和相关政策影响。它们不仅有助于实现更有效的环境管理，而且还有助于解决与各种交互不确定性相关的其他管理问题。 ** 废物管理实践的巨大污染减排成本和重大社会经济影响需要对其进行健全的设计、规划和管理。将所提出的方法应用于加拿大案例将有助于行业和政府提高管理环境问题的有效性。这些技术还将为相关利益相关者提供不仅有效而且节省成本的环境管理实践方法，从而使他们受益。