Development of inexact factorial optimization approaches for managing compound environmental risks under interactive uncertainties

开发不精确因子优化方法来管理交互不确定性下的复合环境风险

• 批准号: RGPIN-2014-04413
• 负责人: Huang, Gordon
• 金额: $ 2.48万
• 依托单位: University of Regina
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=653982
• 关键词: Development; inexact; factorial; optimization; approaches

Environmental systems are complicated with various uncertainties and their interactions. Such complexities can lead to difficulties in clarifying the related vulnerabilities, risks and liabilities under a variety of policy scenarios. Consequently, development of effective methodologies for tackling these difficulties is desired. The objective of this research is to develop inexact factorial programming (IFP) approaches for managing environmental risks under such interactive uncertainties. This objective entails (a) analysis of complexities in environmental systems, (b) development of IFP techniques under interactive uncertainties, (c) advancement of IFP-based risk management approaches, and (d) incorporation of the developed IFP and risk management approaches within a general decision-support framework. The developed methods will then be applied to environmental management within a western Canada context.** Advanced IFP methodologies will be developed for addressing various forms of interactive complexities that exist in air and waste management systems. In fact, factorial analysis was recognized as a powerful approach for revealing multi-level interactions among factors of interest as well as their contributions to system performance. Consequently, advanced IFP methodologies will be developed for addressing various forms of complexities that exist in air and waste management systems. Each proposed methodology would be an integration of multiple techniques within a general optimization framework; they are capable of addressing multi-level interactive uncertainties in modeling parameters and their relationships, as well as their effects on system performances. Based on the IFP results, a set of vulnerability/risk assessment methods will be further developed for analyzing comprehensive effects of interactive human interventions and the associated environmental risks. A number of source-pathway-receptor processes in air/waste management systems will be analyzed through integrated approaches. They will help identify vulnerabilities and risks under multiple uncertainties, generate desired risk prevention and mitigation plans, and ensure effective responses to existing and upcoming hazards. The developed technologies will then be applied to air and waste management within a western Canada context. Decision alternatives for controlling contaminant emission and protecting public health under a variety of system conditions can then be generated.** The proposed research will imply a range of innovative techniques for environmental systems analysis. It will facilitate investigations for methodologies of inexact optimization, vulnerability/risk analysis, multivariate inference and their integrations for tackling challenges of environmental management under interactive uncertainties. The proposed methodologies will allow systematic considerations for a number of critical socio-economic, environmental and technical factors that are related to air and waste management, as well as their interrelationships and the related policy implications. They will be useful for not only accomplishment of more effective environmental management but also extension to other management problems that are associated with various interactive uncertainties.** The enormous pollution abatement costs and significant socio-economic impacts of waste management practices necessitate sound design, planning and management for them. Applications of the proposed methods to Canadian cases will help industries and governments to improve their effectiveness in managing environmental problems. These techniques will also benefit the related stakeholders by providing them with not only effective but also cost-saving methods for their environmental management practices.

环境系统由于各种不确定性及其相互作用而变得复杂。这种复杂性可能会导致在各种政策方案下阐明相关漏洞，风险和负债的困难。因此，需要开发解决这些困难的有效方法。这项研究的目的是开发不精确的阶乘编程（IFP）方法来管理这种交互式不确定性下的环境风险。该目标需要（a）对环境系统中的复杂性的分析，（b）在交互式不确定性下开发IFP技术，（c）基于IFP的风险管理方法的进步，以及（d）将开发的IFP和风险管理方法纳入一般决策框架中。然后，开发的方法将应用于加拿大西部环境中的环境管理。实际上，阶乘分析被认为是一种有力的方法，用于揭示感兴趣因素及其对系统性能的贡献之间的多层次相互作用。因此，将开发出先进的IFP方法，以解决空气和废物管理系统中存在的各种形式的复杂性。每种提出的方​​法将是在一般优化框架内的多种技术的集成。他们能够在建模参数及其关系中解决多层次交互式不确定性以及对系统性能的影响。基于IFP结果，将进一步开发一组脆弱性/风险评估方法，以分析交互式人类干预措施和相关环境风险的全面影响。空气/废物管理系统中的许多来源 - 源 - 受体过程将通过综合方法分析。他们将有助于确定多种不确定性下的漏洞和风险，产生预期的风险预防和缓解计划，并确保对现有危害和即将发生的危害的有效响应。然后，开发的技术将应用于加拿大西部环境中的空气和废物管理。然后可以生成各种系统条件下的污染物排放和保护公共卫生的决策选择。**拟议的研究将暗示环境系统分析的一系列创新技术。它将促进研究不精确优化，脆弱性/风险分析，多元推理及其在交互式不确定性下应对环境管理挑战的整合的研究。拟议的方法将允许系统考虑与空气和废物管理有关的许多关键社会经济，环境和技术因素，以及它们的相互关系以及相关的政策含义。它们不仅可以实现更有效的环境管理，而且还将扩展到与各种互动不确定性相关的其他管理问题。拟议方法在加拿大案件中的应用将帮助行业和政府提高其在管理环境问题方面的有效性。这些技术还将通过为他们的环境管理实践提供有效的省钱方法，而且为他们提供节省成本的方法，从而使相关利益相关者受益。