Management of clean-energy transition and associated risks through a multi-dimensional optimization approach

通过多维度优化方法管理清洁能源转型及相关风险

• 批准号: 479463-2015
• 负责人: Huang, Gordon
• 金额: $ 14.06万
• 依托单位: University of Regina
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Strategic Projects - Group
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=653983
• 关键词: Management; clean; energy; transition; associated

Low-carbon transition is a complex and long-term process and involves many social, economic, environmental, technical and political factors. Complexities arise from multi-dimensionalities that exist in energy systems, including spatial and temporal variations of multiple energy-related activities and their interactions, as well as environmental and socio-economic implications. A low-carbon shift requires a complete analysis for every aspect of the transition pathways. There were many studies on energy systems management, however, past studies did not explore the inherent complexities of energy systems nor did they comprehensively consider the effects of multiple uncertainties and the associated risks. This led to difficulties in acquiring sound bases for formulating desired policies for energy systems management. This research will develop a multi-dimensional optimization and risk management system (MORMS) for supporting strategic decisions in the clean-energy transition. MORMS is the first system to integrate system optimization, risk management, and decision support system development within a general framework. This entails the development of a set of innovative methodologies for studying the following issues: characterization of energy systems, supply-demand analysis, integrated optimization, uncertainty analysis, vulnerability/risk assessment, policy analysis, and climate change adaptation planning. MORMS will be applied to cases of western Canada. For each case study, a thorough analysis of uncertain impact factors and their interactions will be undertaken, followed by further modeling studies to help identify desired clean-energy transition strategies. Results of this research will help governments and industries to formulate Canadian effective policies for energy and environmental management, and thus bring tremendous benefits to a number of communities.****

低碳转型是一个复杂而长期的过程，涉及社会、经济、环境、技术和政治等诸多因素。复杂性源于能源系统中存在的多维性，包括多种能源相关活动的时空变化及其相互作用，以及环境和社会经济影响。低碳转型需要对转型路径的各个方面进行全面分析。关于能源系统管理的研究很多，但以往的研究并没有探讨能源系统固有的复杂性，也没有综合考虑多种不确定性的影响和相关风险。这导致难以为制定所需的能源系统管理政策奠定坚实的基础。该研究将开发多维优化和风险管理系统（MORMS），以支持清洁能源转型的战略决策。 MORMS 是第一个将系统优化、风险管理和决策支持系统开发集成在一个总体框架内的系统。这需要开发一套创新方法来研究以下问题：能源系统特征、供需分析、综合优化、不确定性分析、脆弱性/风险评估、政策分析和气候变化适应规划。 MORMS 将适用于加拿大西部的病例。对于每个案例研究，将对不确定的影响因素及其相互作用进行彻底分析，然后进行进一步的建模研究，以帮助确定所需的清洁能源转型策略。这项研究的结果将帮助政府和行业制定加拿大有效的能源和环境管理政策，从而为许多社区带来巨大的利益。****