Development of ensemble optimization approaches for managing nested multi-level environmental risks

开发管理嵌套多级环境风险的集成优化方法

• 批准号: RGPIN-2019-05565
• 负责人: Huang, Gordon
• 金额: $ 7.21万
• 依托单位: University of Regina
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2021-01-01 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=738372
• 关键词: Development; ensemble; optimization; approaches; managing

An energy and environmental (E&E) system is composed of multiple components related to various socio-economic and environmental concerns, such as resource availability, pollution load, environmental objective, public awareness, and economic impact. Deterministic information about the system is often unavailable such that rough estimations have to be made. On the other hand, an E&E system may contain a number of subsystems at different administrative levels, demonstrating a nested hierarchical feature. Extensive interactions exist among these subsystems, implying compound complexities within national, provincial/territorial and municipal contexts. In Canada, such nested interactions exist among various socio-economic and environmental components. This is especially true with the overall demarcation of northern territories and southern provinces, where unbalanced development is accompanied with strong interdependence between them; in particular, their distinct features in socio-economic development, resources conservation and environmental protection lead to unique complexities in managing the relevant multi-level E&E issues.      The objective of this research is to develop ensemble methods (EM) for managing nested multi-level and multi-dimensional environmental risks. This entails characterization of complexities in nested E&E systems, and development of ensemble methods based on aggregation for a multitude of innovative non-deterministic optimization models. The developed approaches will then be applied to Canadian cases.     In E&E systems, uncertainties may exhibit multiple forms; moreover, among various technologies for E&E management, none dares to claim a triton among the minnows, due to uncertainties in their modeling structures, boundary conditions, and parameter arrangements. Consequently, an ensemble approach will be developed to address these complexities. Rather than relying on one model and hoping that this model is the best, the ensemble approach allows us to take a myriad of base models into account, and aggregate them to produce a more robust decision support system. It will be based on a set of innovative methods for integrated stochastic, fuzzy and interval programming and multicriteria decision analysis. Based on the developed ensemble approach, the nested vulnerabilities and risks in Canadian E&E systems will be analyzed, and desired management plans will be generated.     The proposed research represents an innovation in terms of ensemble modeling based on a set of state-of-the-art non-deterministic optimization techniques for supporting E&E management under interactive uncertainties. Application of the proposed techniques to Canadian cases will help industries and governments to improve their effectiveness in managing nested multi-dimensional E&E problems. In particular, coordinated north-south management strategies will be generated to facilitate cross-region sustainable E&E and socio-economic development.

能源和环境（E＆E）系统由与各种社会经济和环境问题相关的多个组成部分组成，例如资源可用性、污染负荷、环境目标、公众意识和经济影响。有关系统的确定性信息通常无法获得，因此必须进行粗略估计。另一方面，E&E系统可能包含多个不同管理级别的子系统，表现出嵌套的层次结构特征。这些子系统之间存在广泛的相互作用，这意味着国家、省/地区和市范围内的复杂性。在加拿大，这种嵌套的相互作用存在于各种社会经济和环境组成部分之间。尤其是北方地区和南方省份的总体划分，发展不平衡，相互依存性强。特别是，它们在社会经济发展、资源节约和环境保护方面的独特特征，导致管理相关的多层次环境与环境问题具有独特的复杂性。      本研究的目的是开发用于管理嵌套多层次和多维度环境风险的集成方法（EM）。这需要对嵌套 E&E 系统的复杂性进行表征，并开发基于多种创新的非确定性优化模型聚合的集成方法。所制定的方法将应用于加拿大的案例。     在 E&E 系统中，不确定性可能表现出多种形式；此外，在各种E&E管理技术中，由于其建模结构、边界条件和参数安排的不确定性，没有一个敢于称霸小鱼。因此，将开发一种集成方法来解决这些复杂性。集成方法使我们能够考虑无数的基本模型，并将它们聚合起来以产生更强大的决策支持系统，而不是依赖一个模型并希望该模型是最好的。它将基于一套集成随机、模糊和区间规划以及多标准决策分析的创新方法。基于开发的集成方法，将分析加拿大 E&E 系统中的嵌套漏洞和风险，并生成所需的管理计划。     所提出的研究代表了基于一组最先进的非确定性优化技术的集成建模方面的创新，用于支持交互不确定性下的 E&E 管理。将所提出的技术应用于加拿大案例将有助于行业和政府提高管理嵌套多维电子电气问题的有效性。特别是，将制定协调的南北管理战略，以促进跨区域可持续的电力、能源和社会经济发展。