Development of ensemble optimization approaches for managing nested multi-level environmental risks

开发管理嵌套多级环境风险的集成优化方法

• 批准号: RGPIN-2019-05565
• 负责人: Huang, Gordon
• 金额: $ 7.21万
• 依托单位: University of Regina
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2021-01-01 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=738372
• 关键词: Development; ensemble; optimization; approaches; managing

An energy and environmental (E&E) system is composed of multiple components related to various socio-economic and environmental concerns, such as resource availability, pollution load, environmental objective, public awareness, and economic impact. Deterministic information about the system is often unavailable such that rough estimations have to be made. On the other hand, an E&E system may contain a number of subsystems at different administrative levels, demonstrating a nested hierarchical feature. Extensive interactions exist among these subsystems, implying compound complexities within national, provincial/territorial and municipal contexts. In Canada, such nested interactions exist among various socio-economic and environmental components. This is especially true with the overall demarcation of northern territories and southern provinces, where unbalanced development is accompanied with strong interdependence between them; in particular, their distinct features in socio-economic development, resources conservation and environmental protection lead to unique complexities in managing the relevant multi-level E&E issues.      The objective of this research is to develop ensemble methods (EM) for managing nested multi-level and multi-dimensional environmental risks. This entails characterization of complexities in nested E&E systems, and development of ensemble methods based on aggregation for a multitude of innovative non-deterministic optimization models. The developed approaches will then be applied to Canadian cases.     In E&E systems, uncertainties may exhibit multiple forms; moreover, among various technologies for E&E management, none dares to claim a triton among the minnows, due to uncertainties in their modeling structures, boundary conditions, and parameter arrangements. Consequently, an ensemble approach will be developed to address these complexities. Rather than relying on one model and hoping that this model is the best, the ensemble approach allows us to take a myriad of base models into account, and aggregate them to produce a more robust decision support system. It will be based on a set of innovative methods for integrated stochastic, fuzzy and interval programming and multicriteria decision analysis. Based on the developed ensemble approach, the nested vulnerabilities and risks in Canadian E&E systems will be analyzed, and desired management plans will be generated.     The proposed research represents an innovation in terms of ensemble modeling based on a set of state-of-the-art non-deterministic optimization techniques for supporting E&E management under interactive uncertainties. Application of the proposed techniques to Canadian cases will help industries and governments to improve their effectiveness in managing nested multi-dimensional E&E problems. In particular, coordinated north-south management strategies will be generated to facilitate cross-region sustainable E&E and socio-economic development.

能源和环境（E&E）系统由与各种社会经济和环境问题有关的多个组成部分组成，例如资源可用性、污染负荷、环境目标、公众意识和经济影响。关于系统的确定性信息通常是不可用的，因此必须进行粗略的估计。另一方面，E&E系统可能在不同的管理级别上包含许多子系统，展示了嵌套的层次结构特征。这些子系统之间存在着广泛的相互作用，这意味着在国家、省/地区和城市范围内存在复杂的复杂性。在加拿大，这种嵌套的相互作用存在于各种社会经济和环境组成部分之间。北部领土和南部省份的总体划分尤其如此，那里的不平衡发展伴随着它们之间的高度相互依存；特别是在经济社会发展、资源节约和环境保护等方面具有鲜明的特点，在管理相关的多层次环境污染问题上具有独特的复杂性。本研究的目的是开发集成方法（EM）来管理嵌套的多层次和多维环境风险。这需要对嵌套E&E系统中的复杂性进行表征，并开发基于大量创新的非确定性优化模型的聚合的集成方法。拟定的办法将适用于加拿大的案例。在电子电气系统中，不确定性可能表现为多种形式；此外，在各种机电管理技术中，由于建模结构、边界条件、参数安排等方面的不确定性，没有哪一种技术敢在小众中独树一帜。因此，将开发一种集成方法来处理这些复杂性。而不是依赖于一个模型，并希望这个模型是最好的，集成方法允许我们考虑无数的基本模型，并将它们聚集在一起，以产生一个更健壮的决策支持系统。它将基于一套集成随机、模糊、区间规划和多准则决策分析的创新方法。基于已开发的集成方法，分析加拿大电气电气系统中嵌套的漏洞和风险，并生成所需的管理计划。提出的研究代表了基于一组最先进的非确定性优化技术的集成建模方面的创新，以支持交互不确定性下的E&E管理。将建议的技术应用到加拿大的案例中，将有助于行业和政府提高管理嵌套多维E&E问题的有效性。特别是将制订协调的南北管理战略，以促进跨区域可持续的环境和经济发展和社会经济发展。