Development of ensemble optimization approaches for managing nested multi-level environmental risks

开发管理嵌套多级环境风险的集成优化方法

• 批准号: RGPIN-2019-05565
• 负责人: Huang, Gordon
• 金额: $ 7.21万
• 依托单位: University of Regina
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2021-01-01 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=738372
• 关键词: Development; ensemble; optimization; approaches; managing

An energy and environmental (E&E) system is composed of multiple components related to various socio-economic and environmental concerns, such as resource availability, pollution load, environmental objective, public awareness, and economic impact. Deterministic information about the system is often unavailable such that rough estimations have to be made. On the other hand, an E&E system may contain a number of subsystems at different administrative levels, demonstrating a nested hierarchical feature. Extensive interactions exist among these subsystems, implying compound complexities within national, provincial/territorial and municipal contexts. In Canada, such nested interactions exist among various socio-economic and environmental components. This is especially true with the overall demarcation of northern territories and southern provinces, where unbalanced development is accompanied with strong interdependence between them; in particular, their distinct features in socio-economic development, resources conservation and environmental protection lead to unique complexities in managing the relevant multi-level E&E issues.      The objective of this research is to develop ensemble methods (EM) for managing nested multi-level and multi-dimensional environmental risks. This entails characterization of complexities in nested E&E systems, and development of ensemble methods based on aggregation for a multitude of innovative non-deterministic optimization models. The developed approaches will then be applied to Canadian cases.     In E&E systems, uncertainties may exhibit multiple forms; moreover, among various technologies for E&E management, none dares to claim a triton among the minnows, due to uncertainties in their modeling structures, boundary conditions, and parameter arrangements. Consequently, an ensemble approach will be developed to address these complexities. Rather than relying on one model and hoping that this model is the best, the ensemble approach allows us to take a myriad of base models into account, and aggregate them to produce a more robust decision support system. It will be based on a set of innovative methods for integrated stochastic, fuzzy and interval programming and multicriteria decision analysis. Based on the developed ensemble approach, the nested vulnerabilities and risks in Canadian E&E systems will be analyzed, and desired management plans will be generated.     The proposed research represents an innovation in terms of ensemble modeling based on a set of state-of-the-art non-deterministic optimization techniques for supporting E&E management under interactive uncertainties. Application of the proposed techniques to Canadian cases will help industries and governments to improve their effectiveness in managing nested multi-dimensional E&E problems. In particular, coordinated north-south management strategies will be generated to facilitate cross-region sustainable E&E and socio-economic development.

能源与环境（E&E）系统由多个与各种社会经济和环境问题相关的组成部分组成，例如资源可用性、污染负荷、环境目标、公众意识和经济影响。关于系统的确定性信息通常是不可用的，因此必须进行粗略的估计。另一方面，一个E&E系统可能包含不同行政级别的若干子系统，表现出嵌套的层级特征。这些子系统之间存在着广泛的相互作用，这意味着在国家、省/地区和城市范围内存在着复杂的情况。在加拿大，各种社会经济和环境组成部分之间存在这种相互作用。特别是北方地区与南方省份总体上处于分治状态，发展不平衡，相互依存性强，特别是经济社会发展、资源节约和环境保护等方面的特点，使得管理多层次的环境保护问题具有独特的复杂性。 本研究的目的是开发集成方法（EM）管理嵌套的多层次和多维的环境风险。这需要表征嵌套的E&E系统的复杂性，并开发基于聚合的集合方法，用于众多创新的非确定性优化模型。然后，将制定的方法适用于加拿大的情况。 在机电系统中，不确定性可能表现为多种形式，而且，在各种机电管理技术中，由于其模型结构、边界条件和参数设置的不确定性，没有人敢声称是小鱼中的一个。因此，将制定一个整体办法来解决这些复杂问题。而不是依赖于一个模型，并希望这个模型是最好的，集成方法允许我们考虑无数的基本模型，并将它们聚合起来，以产生一个更强大的决策支持系统。它将基于一套创新的方法，综合随机，模糊和区间规划和多准则决策分析。基于开发的集成方法，嵌套的脆弱性和风险在加拿大的E&E系统将进行分析，并将产生所需的管理计划。 拟议的研究代表了一种创新的集成建模的基础上，一套国家的最先进的非确定性优化技术，支持E&E管理下的互动不确定性。应用所提出的技术，加拿大的情况下，将有助于行业和政府，以提高其管理嵌套多维E&E问题的有效性。特别是，将制定协调的南北管理战略，以促进跨区域的可持续能源和能源以及社会经济发展。