Pattern and process in global change biology: from physiology to fisheries sustainability

种群生态学中的一个基本问题是，是什么因素影响种群内在增长率和物种间对灭绝的内在敏感度的差异？我的愿景是到达一个偏远的岛屿，只用一位18世纪博物学家的工具(以及一台计算机和我从NSERC DG开发的模型)来对当地渔业进行生态风险评估。仅使用温度计、野外指南、解剖工具和光学显微镜，我希望使用代理对当地鱼类动物群进行排名，以确定它们的最大种群增长率、需要保护的濒临灭绝的物种以及其他可持续捕捞的物种。具体地说，我的研究计划的长期目标是使用与其渔业可持续性直接相关的生理学原理来评估大量物种的生态风险。在过去的二十年里，我在理解物种和群落对气候变化的反应的生理基础方面取得了重大进展。现在，我希望从生理学、生活方式和非生物环境对生活史和人口学的相互作用来预测最大人口增长率和渔业可持续性。我将结合三个目前没有联系但相关的理论，以发展人口统计学和渔业可持续性的生理学理论：(1)代谢率的大小依赖关系，(2)保利的鳃面积生长理论，以及(3)查尔诺夫的生活史不变量。我的目标将通过五个相互关联的短期目标来实现，以确定：(1)鳃和心脏影响代谢率的大小依赖性[Phc 1]，(2)鳃和心脏影响躯体生长轨迹[Phd 2]，(3)生长决定生活史和最大种群增长率[Phd 3]，(4)环境塑造生活史和种群动态[Phd 4]，(5)生命史的环境生理学预测灭绝风险和捕捞死亡率(Phd 5)。我的建议将经典的形态生理学与基本的生活史理论相结合，以开发灭绝风险和捕鱼死亡的空间模式的预测模型--主要威胁过程。这将通过现场采样和实验室估计硬骨鱼和棘鱼的鳃面积和心脏质量来完成，我们拥有这些鱼类的代谢率、生长和其他生活史数据。然后，我将使用先进的统计建模技术，根据环境与体细胞生长的联系，绘制生活史和最大人口增长的全球分布图。然后，这些数据集和方法将使我能够根据生活史和观察到的灭绝风险来模拟潜在的灭绝风险和全球渔业死亡率。拟议研究的影响：拟议的工作方案非常新颖，因为我试图通过建立基于生长的环境和生理基础的灭绝风险和捕捞死亡率的全球模型，进而建立生长与生活史和种群动态之间的关系，来理解渔业可持续发展的生理学。这项工作在三个方面产生了直接的应用影响，包括：(I)从鳃区域估计代谢率(不需要复杂、耗时的实验工作)，(Ii)根据形态计量学(鳃面积和最大体型)估计最大种群增长率，以及(Iii)建立相对灭绝风险和捕捞死亡率的海洋地图。加拿大以前从未需要过以证据为基础的政策制定。我的工作将继续为加拿大带来巨大的好处，因为5名研究生和10名本科生HQP培训了全球变化的科学和传播。

A fundamental question in population ecology is what factors influence variation in the intrinsic rate of population increase and intrinsic sensitivity to extinction among species? My vision is to arrive on a remote island armed only with the tools of an 18th century naturalist (and a computer and the models I develop from this NSERC DG) to undertake ecological risk assessments of the local fisheries. Using only a thermometer, field guide, dissection kit, and light microscope, I wish to rank the local fish fauna using proxies for their maximum population growth rate, flagging species warranting protection and others that can be fished sustainably. Specifically, the long-term goal of my research program is to assess ecological risk of a vast number of species using principles that directly relate their physiology to their fisheries sustainability. Over the past two decades, I have made significant progress in understanding the physiological basis of the response of species and assemblages to climate change. I now wish to predict maximum population growth rates and fisheries sustainability from the interplay of physiology, lifestyle and abiotic environment upon life histories and demography. I will bridge three currently unconnected, but related, theories to develop a physiological theory of demography and fisheries sustainability: (1) the size-dependence of metabolic rate, (2) Pauly’s gill area theory of growth, and (3) Charnov’s life history invariants. My goal will be realized through five interrelated short-term objectives, to determine how: (1) gills and hearts influence the size-dependency of metabolic rate [MSc 1], (2) gills and hearts influence the somatic growth trajectory [PhD 2], (3) growth fixes life histories and maximum population growth rate [PhD 3], (4) environment shapes the geography of life histories and population dynamics [PhD 4], (5) environmental physiology of life histories predict extinction risk and fishing mortality (PhD 5). My proposal integrates classical morphological physiology with fundamental life history theory to develop predictive models of the spatial patterning of extinction risk and fishing mortality - the principle threatening process. This will be done by field sampling, and laboratory estimation of gill area and heart mass for those teleost and elasmobranch fishes for which we have metabolic rate, growth and other life history data. I will then used advanced statistical modeling techniques to map the global distribution of life histories and maximum population growth based on environmental links to somatic growth. These datasets and methods will then allow me to model the potential risk of extinction and global fishing mortality based on life histories and observed extinction risk. Impact of proposed research: The proposed program of work is highly novel in that I seek to understand the physiology of fisheries sustainability by developing global models of extinction risk and fishing mortality founded upon the environmental and physiological basis for growth, and in turn relationship between growth to life histories and population dynamics. This work has direct applied impact in three ways, by enabling: (i) estimation of metabolic rate from gill areas (without the need for complex, time consuming experimental work), (ii) estimation of maximum population growth rate from morphometrics (gill area and maximum size), and (iii) modeling ocean-wide maps of relative extinction risk and fishing mortality. Never before has Canada needed evidence-based policy making. My work will continue to have significant benefits to Canada in that 5 graduate and 10 undergraduate HQP trained the science and communication of global change.