Pattern and process in global change biology: from physiology to fisheries sustainability

种群生态学的一个基本问题是什么因素影响物种间种群增长的内在速率和对灭绝的内在敏感性的变化？我的愿景是带着18世纪自然学家的工具（以及一台电脑和我从NSERC DG中开发的模型）到达一个偏远的岛屿，对当地渔业进行生态风险评估。仅使用温度计、野外指南、解剖试剂盒和光学显微镜，我希望使用其最大种群增长率的代理对当地鱼类动物群进行排名，标记需要保护的物种和其他可以可持续捕捞的物种。具体来说，我的研究项目的长期目标是利用生理学与渔业可持续性直接相关的原则，评估大量物种的生态风险。在过去的二十年里，我在了解物种和组合对气候变化响应的生理基础方面取得了重大进展。我现在希望从生理、生活方式和非生物环境对生命史和人口统计学的相互作用来预测最大的人口增长率和渔业可持续性。我将连接三个目前不相关但相关的理论，以发展人口统计学和渔业可持续性的生理理论：(1)代谢率的大小依赖性，(2)保利的鳃面积生长理论，(3)查诺夫的生活史不变量。我的目标将通过五个相互关联的短期目标来实现，以确定如何：(1)鳃和心脏影响代谢率的大小依赖性[MSc 1]，(2)鳃和心脏影响体细胞生长轨迹[PhD 2]，(3)生长固定生活史和最大种群增长率[PhD 3]，(4)环境塑造生活史地理和种群动态[PhD 4]，(5)生活史环境生理学预测灭绝风险和捕捞死亡率（PhD 5）。我的建议将经典形态生理学与基本生活史理论相结合，以建立灭绝风险和捕捞死亡率的空间模式预测模型-主要威胁过程。这将通过实地取样和实验室估计硬骨鱼和板鳃鱼的鳃面积和心脏质量来完成，我们有代谢率、生长和其他生活史数据。然后，我将使用先进的统计建模技术来绘制生活史的全球分布，以及基于环境与躯体生长的联系的最大人口增长。然后，这些数据集和方法将使我能够根据生活史和观察到的灭绝风险，对潜在的灭绝风险和全球捕捞死亡率进行建模。拟议研究的影响：拟议的工作计划非常新颖，因为我试图通过建立在生长的环境和生理基础上的灭绝风险和捕捞死亡率的全球模型，以及生长与生活史和种群动态之间的关系，来理解渔业可持续性的生理学。这项工作在三个方面具有直接的应用影响，通过实现：(i)从鳃区估计代谢率（不需要复杂、耗时的实验工作），（ii）从形态计量学（鳃面积和最大尺寸）估计最大种群增长率，以及（iii）模拟相对灭绝风险和捕捞死亡率的全海洋地图。加拿大从未需要以证据为基础的政策制定。我的工作将继续为加拿大带来显著的好处，因为HQP培养了全球变化的科学和传播。

A fundamental question in population ecology is what factors influence variation in the intrinsic rate of population increase and intrinsic sensitivity to extinction among species? My vision is to arrive on a remote island armed only with the tools of an 18th century naturalist (and a computer and the models I develop from this NSERC DG) to undertake ecological risk assessments of the local fisheries. Using only a thermometer, field guide, dissection kit, and light microscope, I wish to rank the local fish fauna using proxies for their maximum population growth rate, flagging species warranting protection and others that can be fished sustainably. Specifically, the long-term goal of my research program is to assess ecological risk of a vast number of species using principles that directly relate their physiology to their fisheries sustainability. Over the past two decades, I have made significant progress in understanding the physiological basis of the response of species and assemblages to climate change. I now wish to predict maximum population growth rates and fisheries sustainability from the interplay of physiology, lifestyle and abiotic environment upon life histories and demography. I will bridge three currently unconnected, but related, theories to develop a physiological theory of demography and fisheries sustainability: (1) the size-dependence of metabolic rate, (2) Pauly’s gill area theory of growth, and (3) Charnov’s life history invariants. My goal will be realized through five interrelated short-term objectives, to determine how: (1) gills and hearts influence the size-dependency of metabolic rate [MSc 1], (2) gills and hearts influence the somatic growth trajectory [PhD 2], (3) growth fixes life histories and maximum population growth rate [PhD 3], (4) environment shapes the geography of life histories and population dynamics [PhD 4], (5) environmental physiology of life histories predict extinction risk and fishing mortality (PhD 5). My proposal integrates classical morphological physiology with fundamental life history theory to develop predictive models of the spatial patterning of extinction risk and fishing mortality - the principle threatening process. This will be done by field sampling, and laboratory estimation of gill area and heart mass for those teleost and elasmobranch fishes for which we have metabolic rate, growth and other life history data. I will then used advanced statistical modeling techniques to map the global distribution of life histories and maximum population growth based on environmental links to somatic growth. These datasets and methods will then allow me to model the potential risk of extinction and global fishing mortality based on life histories and observed extinction risk. Impact of proposed research: The proposed program of work is highly novel in that I seek to understand the physiology of fisheries sustainability by developing global models of extinction risk and fishing mortality founded upon the environmental and physiological basis for growth, and in turn relationship between growth to life histories and population dynamics. This work has direct applied impact in three ways, by enabling: (i) estimation of metabolic rate from gill areas (without the need for complex, time consuming experimental work), (ii) estimation of maximum population growth rate from morphometrics (gill area and maximum size), and (iii) modeling ocean-wide maps of relative extinction risk and fishing mortality. Never before has Canada needed evidence-based policy making. My work will continue to have significant benefits to Canada in that 5 graduate and 10 undergraduate HQP trained the science and communication of global change.