Pattern and process in global change biology: from physiology to fisheries sustainability

全球变化生物学的模式和过程：从生理学到渔业可持续性

• 批准号: RGPIN-2014-06486
• 负责人: Dulvy, Nicholas
• 金额: $ 4.52万
• 依托单位: Simon Fraser University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2016-01-01 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=612254
• 关键词: Pattern; process; global; change; biology

A fundamental question in population ecology is what factors influence variation in the intrinsic rate of population increase and intrinsic sensitivity to extinction among species? My vision is to arrive on a remote island armed only with the tools of an 18th century naturalist (and a computer and the models I develop from this NSERC DG) to undertake ecological risk assessments of the local fisheries. Using only a thermometer, field guide, dissection kit, and light microscope, I wish to rank the local fish fauna using proxies for their maximum population growth rate, flagging species warranting protection and others that can be fished sustainably. Specifically, the long-term goal of my research program is to assess ecological risk of a vast number of species using principles that directly relate their physiology to their fisheries sustainability. Over the past two decades, I have made significant progress in understanding the physiological basis of the response of species and assemblages to climate change. I now wish to predict maximum population growth rates and fisheries sustainability from the interplay of physiology, lifestyle and abiotic environment upon life histories and demography. I will bridge three currently unconnected, but related, theories to develop a physiological theory of demography and fisheries sustainability: (1) the size-dependence of metabolic rate, (2) Pauly’s gill area theory of growth, and (3) Charnov’s life history invariants. My goal will be realized through five interrelated short-term objectives, to determine how: (1) gills and hearts influence the size-dependency of metabolic rate [MSc 1], (2) gills and hearts influence the somatic growth trajectory [PhD 2], (3) growth fixes life histories and maximum population growth rate [PhD 3], (4) environment shapes the geography of life histories and population dynamics [PhD 4], (5) environmental physiology of life histories predict extinction risk and fishing mortality (PhD 5). My proposal integrates classical morphological physiology with fundamental life history theory to develop predictive models of the spatial patterning of extinction risk and fishing mortality - the principle threatening process. This will be done by field sampling, and laboratory estimation of gill area and heart mass for those teleost and elasmobranch fishes for which we have metabolic rate, growth and other life history data. I will then used advanced statistical modeling techniques to map the global distribution of life histories and maximum population growth based on environmental links to somatic growth. These datasets and methods will then allow me to model the potential risk of extinction and global fishing mortality based on life histories and observed extinction risk. Impact of proposed research: The proposed program of work is highly novel in that I seek to understand the physiology of fisheries sustainability by developing global models of extinction risk and fishing mortality founded upon the environmental and physiological basis for growth, and in turn relationship between growth to life histories and population dynamics. This work has direct applied impact in three ways, by enabling: (i) estimation of metabolic rate from gill areas (without the need for complex, time consuming experimental work), (ii) estimation of maximum population growth rate from morphometrics (gill area and maximum size), and (iii) modeling ocean-wide maps of relative extinction risk and fishing mortality. Never before has Canada needed evidence-based policy making. My work will continue to have significant benefits to Canada in that 5 graduate and 10 undergraduate HQP trained the science and communication of global change.

种群生态学中的一个基本问题是什么因素影响种群增长的内在速率和物种灭绝的内在敏感性？我的愿景是到达一个偏远的岛屿，只带着一个世纪博物学家的工具（还有一台计算机和我从这个NSERC DG开发的模型），对当地渔业进行生态风险评估。仅使用温度计、野外指南、解剖工具包和光学显微镜，我希望使用最大种群增长率、标记物种保护和其他可持续捕捞的替代品对当地鱼类动物群进行排名。 具体来说，我的研究计划的长期目标是评估大量物种的生态风险使用的原则，直接关系到他们的生理渔业可持续性。在过去的二十年里，我在理解物种和群落对气候变化的反应的生理基础方面取得了重大进展。我现在希望从生理、生活方式和非生物环境对生活史和人口统计的相互作用来预测最大人口增长率和渔业可持续性。我将桥接三个目前不相关的，但相关的，理论发展人口统计学和渔业可持续性的生理学理论：（1）代谢率的大小依赖性，（2）保利的鳃面积理论的增长，（3）Charnov的生活史不变量。 我的目标将通过五个相互关联的短期目标来实现，以确定如何： (1)鳃和心脏影响代谢率的大小依赖性[MSc 1]， (2)鳃和心脏影响体细胞生长轨迹[PhD 2]， (3)增长修复生活史和最大人口增长率[博士3]， (4)环境塑造生活史和种群动态的地理[博士4]， (5)生活史的环境生理学预测灭绝风险和捕捞死亡率（博士5）。 我的建议整合了经典的形态生理学与基本的生活史理论，开发灭绝风险和捕捞死亡率的空间格局的预测模型-原则威胁的过程。这将通过现场采样，以及对硬骨鱼和板鳃鱼的鳃面积和心脏质量的实验室估计来完成，我们有代谢率，生长和其他生活史数据。然后，我将使用先进的统计建模技术来绘制生命史的全球分布图，并根据环境与体细胞生长的联系绘制最大人口增长图。这些数据集和方法将使我能够根据生命史和观察到的灭绝风险来模拟潜在的灭绝风险和全球捕捞死亡率。 拟议研究的影响：拟议的工作方案是非常新颖的，我试图了解渔业可持续发展的生理学，通过开发灭绝风险和捕捞死亡率的全球模型，建立在环境和生理基础上的增长，反过来增长之间的关系，生活史和人口动态。这项工作在三个方面具有直接的应用影响，通过实现：（i）从鳃面积估计代谢率（不需要复杂，耗时的实验工作），（ii）从形态测量学（鳃面积和最大尺寸）估计最大种群增长率，以及（iii）建立相对灭绝风险和捕捞死亡率的海洋地图。加拿大从来没有需要基于证据的政策制定。我的工作将继续有显着的好处，加拿大在5个研究生和10个本科生HQP培训的科学和全球变化的通信。