Future species of Anthropocene seas: understanding global patterns from metabolic processes

人类世海洋的未来物种：从代谢过程了解全球模式

• 批准号: RGPIN-2019-04631
• 负责人: Dulvy, Nicholas
• 金额: $ 6.92万
• 依托单位: Simon Fraser University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2021-01-01 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=737753
• 关键词: Future; species; Anthropocene; seas; understanding

My long-term goal is to understand which marine species will survive the Anthropocene. My premise is that species' extinction risk depends upon the interaction of population growth rates with fishing mortality. Put simply, a species will go extinct if the rate of fishing mortality is greater than the rate at which the population can replace itself - the population growth rate. This framing leads to two fundamental ecological questions. First, how does respiratory metabolism shape the pattern of life histories and population growth rates across the globe? Second, where are the places where fishing mortality is greater than species' population growth rates? Much of our understanding of global biodiversity comes from well-trodden terrestrial vertebrate exemplars. Sharks offer an independent aquatic test of many established theories, and my 2013 NSERC Discovery and Accelerator grants enabled me to branch into two new research themes: respiratory metabolism and global biodiversity patterns. My integrated research program now spans life histories from organismal metabolic processes to global patterns in population dynamics, and I am positioned to exploit two key opportunities. The first opportunity is that I now have the requisite components to test many macroecological and macroevolutionary hypotheses, using sharks as an exemplar, including: a dated phylogeny, compete distribution maps and IUCN extinction risk estimates for all species, plus a rapidly growing database of life history and ecological traits (SharkTraits). Second, I have successfully dissected the metabolic basis of the climate-change responses of species, and I am poised to apply these techniques to understand overfishing and extinction risk.  I will bridge three currently unconnected, but related, theories to develop a metabolic biogeography theory of population growth and extinction risk, namely: (1) Pauly's Gill-Oxygen Limitation Theory, (2) Southwood's Ecological Template, and (3) Clarke's economic Discounting Theory of extinction risk. The core of my proposal spans life histories -- from respiratory metabolism to global patterns -- and the intersection of population growth rates with overfishing, as driven by economic discounting.  My long-term goal will be realized through four short-term objectives, to understand how: (1) gills influence metabolic rates, (2) gills influence life histories and population growth rates, (3) gills (and environment) shape spatial patterns of population growth, and (4) population growth rate intersects with fishing mortality causing extinction risk. My work has significant benefits for Canada, producing at least 60 publications, plus 17 highly employable HQP with theoretical and empirical experience bridging from respiratory physiology to global sustainability - from a lab with a world-class record of providing and communicating salient science that shapes societal decisions.

我的长期目标是了解哪些海洋物种将在人类世幸存下来。我的前提是，物种灭绝的风险取决于种群增长率和渔业死亡率之间的相互作用。简而言之，如果捕捞死亡率大于种群能够自我取代的速率--种群增长率，一个物种就会灭绝。这一框架引出了两个基本的生态问题。首先，呼吸代谢如何影响全球的生活史模式和人口增长率？第二，渔业死亡率高于物种种群增长率的地方在哪里？我们对全球生物多样性的大部分了解都来自于常见的陆生脊椎动物样本。鲨鱼为许多成熟的理论提供了一个独立的水上测试，我2013年的NSERC发现和加速器资助使我能够分支到两个新的研究主题：呼吸新陈代谢和全球生物多样性模式。我的综合研究项目现在跨越了从生物代谢过程到全球种群动态模式的生命历史，我已经做好了利用两个关键机会的准备。第一个机会是，我现在有必要的组成部分来测试许多宏观生态和宏观进化假说，以鲨鱼为样本，包括：过时的系统发育、竞争分布图和所有物种的IUCN灭绝风险估计，以及一个快速增长的生活史和生态特征数据库(SharkTraits)。其次，我已经成功地剖析了物种气候变化反应的代谢基础，并准备应用这些技术来理解过度捕捞和灭绝风险。我将连接目前没有联系但相关的三个理论，以发展种群增长和灭绝风险的代谢生物地理学理论，即：(1)保利的鳃氧气限制理论，(2)索斯伍德的生态模板，和(3)克拉克的灭绝风险经济贴现理论。我的建议的核心是跨越生活史--从呼吸新陈代谢到全球模式--以及在经济贴现的推动下，种群增长率与过度捕捞的交集。我的长期目标将通过四个短期目标来实现，以了解：(1)鳃影响代谢率，(2)鳃影响生活史和种群增长率，(3)鳃(和环境)塑造种群增长的空间格局，以及(4)种群增长率与渔业死亡率相交导致灭绝风险。我的工作对加拿大有重大好处，制作了至少60份出版物，以及17份高度可雇用的HQP，他们拥有从呼吸生理学到全球可持续发展的理论和实证经验-来自一个提供和传播塑造社会决策的重要科学的世界级记录的实验室。