Future species of Anthropocene seas: understanding global patterns from metabolic processes

人类世海洋的未来物种：从代谢过程了解全球模式

• 批准号: RGPIN-2019-04631
• 负责人: Dulvy, Nicholas
• 金额: $ 6.92万
• 依托单位: Simon Fraser University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2021-01-01 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=737753
• 关键词: Future; species; Anthropocene; seas; understanding

My long-term goal is to understand which marine species will survive the Anthropocene. My premise is that species' extinction risk depends upon the interaction of population growth rates with fishing mortality. Put simply, a species will go extinct if the rate of fishing mortality is greater than the rate at which the population can replace itself - the population growth rate. This framing leads to two fundamental ecological questions. First, how does respiratory metabolism shape the pattern of life histories and population growth rates across the globe? Second, where are the places where fishing mortality is greater than species' population growth rates? Much of our understanding of global biodiversity comes from well-trodden terrestrial vertebrate exemplars. Sharks offer an independent aquatic test of many established theories, and my 2013 NSERC Discovery and Accelerator grants enabled me to branch into two new research themes: respiratory metabolism and global biodiversity patterns. My integrated research program now spans life histories from organismal metabolic processes to global patterns in population dynamics, and I am positioned to exploit two key opportunities. The first opportunity is that I now have the requisite components to test many macroecological and macroevolutionary hypotheses, using sharks as an exemplar, including: a dated phylogeny, compete distribution maps and IUCN extinction risk estimates for all species, plus a rapidly growing database of life history and ecological traits (SharkTraits). Second, I have successfully dissected the metabolic basis of the climate-change responses of species, and I am poised to apply these techniques to understand overfishing and extinction risk.  I will bridge three currently unconnected, but related, theories to develop a metabolic biogeography theory of population growth and extinction risk, namely: (1) Pauly's Gill-Oxygen Limitation Theory, (2) Southwood's Ecological Template, and (3) Clarke's economic Discounting Theory of extinction risk. The core of my proposal spans life histories -- from respiratory metabolism to global patterns -- and the intersection of population growth rates with overfishing, as driven by economic discounting.  My long-term goal will be realized through four short-term objectives, to understand how: (1) gills influence metabolic rates, (2) gills influence life histories and population growth rates, (3) gills (and environment) shape spatial patterns of population growth, and (4) population growth rate intersects with fishing mortality causing extinction risk. My work has significant benefits for Canada, producing at least 60 publications, plus 17 highly employable HQP with theoretical and empirical experience bridging from respiratory physiology to global sustainability - from a lab with a world-class record of providing and communicating salient science that shapes societal decisions.

我的长期目标是了解哪些海洋物种将在人类世中幸存下来。我的前提是物种灭绝风险取决于人口增长率与捕捞死亡率的相互作用。简而言之，如果捕捞死亡率高于种群自我更新的速度（即人口增长率），某个物种就会灭绝。这一框架引出了两个基本的生态问题。首先，呼吸代谢如何塑造全球生活史和人口增长率的模式？其次，哪些地方捕捞死亡率高于物种种群增长率？我们对全球生物多样性的了解大部分来自于人们熟知的陆地脊椎动物范例。鲨鱼为许多既定理论提供了独立的水生测试，我的 2013 年 NSERC 发现和加速器资助使我能够扩展到两个新的研究主题：呼吸代谢和全球生物多样性模式。 我的综合研究项目现在涵盖从有机体代谢过程到人口动态的全球模式的生命史，我准备利用两个关键机会。第一个机会是，我现在拥有以鲨鱼为范例来测试许多宏观生态和宏观进化假设的必要组成部分，包括：所有物种的过时系统发育、完整分布图和 IUCN 灭绝风险估计，以及快速增长的生活史和生态特征数据库（SharkTraits）。其次，我已经成功剖析了物种对气候变化反应的代谢基础，并且我准备应用这些技术来了解过度捕捞和灭绝风险。  我将连接三个目前不相关但相关的理论，以发展人口增长和灭绝风险的代谢生物地理学理论，即：(1) 保利的鳃氧限制理论，(2) 索斯伍德的生态模板，以及 (3) 克拉克的灭绝风险经济贴现理论。我的提案的核心涵盖了生命史——从呼吸代谢到全球模式——以及由经济贴现驱动的人口增长率与过度捕捞的交叉点。  我的长期目标将通过四个短期目标来实现，以了解：（1）鳃影响新陈代谢率，（2）鳃影响生活史和种群增长率，（3）鳃（和环境）塑造种群增长的空间模式，以及（4）种群增长率与导致灭绝风险的捕捞死亡率相交。我的工作为加拿大带来了巨大的好处，出版了至少 60 篇出版物，以及 17 个高度就业的 HQP，这些 HQP 拥有从呼吸生理学到全球可持续发展的理论和经验经验——来自一个在提供和传播影响社会决策的重要科学方面拥有世界一流记录的实验室。