Future species of Anthropocene seas: understanding global patterns from metabolic processes

我的长期目标是了解哪些海洋物种将在人类世幸存下来。我的前提是，物种灭绝的风险取决于人口增长率与捕捞死亡率的相互作用。简单地说，如果捕捞死亡率大于种群自我更新的速度，一个物种就会灭绝。这种框架导致了两个基本的生态问题。第一，呼吸代谢是如何影响整个地球仪的生命史模式和人口增长率的？第二，哪里的捕捞死亡率大于物种的人口增长率？我们对全球生物多样性的理解大部分来自于被广泛使用的陆生脊椎动物样本。鲨鱼提供了一个独立的水生测试许多既定的理论，我的2013年NSERC发现和加速器赠款使我能够分支到两个新的研究主题：呼吸代谢和全球生物多样性模式。 我的综合研究计划现在跨越从生物体代谢过程到人口动态全球模式的生命历史，我定位于利用两个关键机会。第一个机会是，我现在有必要的组件来测试许多宏观生态和宏观进化的假设，使用鲨鱼作为范例，包括：一个过时的物种发生，竞争分布图和世界自然保护联盟灭绝风险估计所有物种，加上一个快速增长的生活史和生态特征数据库（SharkTraits）。其次，我已经成功地剖析了物种对气候变化反应的代谢基础，我准备应用这些技术来了解过度捕捞和灭绝风险。 我将桥接三个目前不相关的，但相关的，理论来发展一个人口增长和灭绝风险的代谢地理学理论，即：（1）保利的鳃氧限制理论，（2）Southwood的生态模板，（3）克拉克的灭绝风险的经济贴现理论。我的建议的核心涵盖了生命的历史--从呼吸代谢到全球模式--以及人口增长率与过度捕捞的交叉点，这是由经济折扣驱动的。 我的长期目标将通过四个短期目标来实现，以了解如何： (1)鳃影响代谢率， (2)鳃影响生活史和种群增长率， (3)鳃（和环境）塑造了种群增长的空间格局， (4)人口增长率与造成灭绝风险的捕捞死亡率相交。 我的工作为加拿大带来了巨大的利益，产生了至少60篇出版物，加上17名具有理论和经验的HQP，从呼吸生理学到全球可持续发展，从一个具有世界级记录的实验室提供和传播塑造社会决策的突出科学。

My long-term goal is to understand which marine species will survive the Anthropocene. My premise is that species' extinction risk depends upon the interaction of population growth rates with fishing mortality. Put simply, a species will go extinct if the rate of fishing mortality is greater than the rate at which the population can replace itself the population growth rate. This framing leads to two fundamental ecological questions. First, how does respiratory metabolism shape the pattern of life histories and population growth rates across the globe? Second, where are the places where fishing mortality is greater than species' population growth rates? Much of our understanding of global biodiversity comes from well-trodden terrestrial vertebrate exemplars. Sharks offer an independent aquatic test of many established theories, and my 2013 NSERC Discovery and Accelerator grants enabled me to branch into two new research themes: respiratory metabolism and global biodiversity patterns. My integrated research program now spans life histories from organismal metabolic processes to global patterns in population dynamics, and I am positioned to exploit two key opportunities. The first opportunity is that I now have the requisite components to test many macroecological and macroevolutionary hypotheses, using sharks as an exemplar, including: a dated phylogeny, compete distribution maps and IUCN extinction risk estimates for all species, plus a rapidly growing database of life history and ecological traits (SharkTraits). Second, I have successfully dissected the metabolic basis of the climate-change responses of species, and I am poised to apply these techniques to understand overfishing and extinction risk. I will bridge three currently unconnected, but related, theories to develop a metabolic biogeography theory of population growth and extinction risk, namely: (1) Pauly's Gill-Oxygen Limitation Theory, (2) Southwood's Ecological Template, and (3) Clarke's economic Discounting Theory of extinction risk. The core of my proposal spans life histories -- from respiratory metabolism to global patterns -- and the intersection of population growth rates with overfishing, as driven by economic discounting. My long-term goal will be realized through four short-term objectives, to understand how: (1) gills influence metabolic rates, (2) gills influence life histories and population growth rates, (3) gills (and environment) shape spatial patterns of population growth, and (4) population growth rate intersects with fishing mortality causing extinction risk. My work has significant benefits for Canada, producing at least 60 publications, plus 17 highly employable HQP with theoretical and empirical experience bridging from respiratory physiology to global sustainability from a lab with a world-class record of providing and communicating salient science that shapes societal decisions.