Modelling and forecasting environmental effects on renewable energy production and power system operation

拟议的研究计划的最终目标是开发一个智能框架，有效地利用天气信息的规划，设计和可持续电力系统的运行。该框架将形成一个智能的基于天气的决策支持系统的电力工业的基础。该系统集联合收割机监测、预报、信息处理、可视化等功能于一体，为决策提供支持。 在短期内，该计划将集中在两个研究目标。1)开发先进的工具，对可再生能源的能源生产进行建模和预测。我们将提高生产模型的准确性，增加预测能源产量快速变化的能力，并开发估计预测不确定性的新方法。这些创新工具将以天气预测和模式识别技术相结合为基础。2)模拟环境对EPS的影响。这项研究将侧重于预测冰暴的规模和定位，规划输电受限的可再生能源发电组合，以及设计新的输电走廊。 该研究计划将为能源相关的天气预报奠定基础，并为电力行业的各种应用领域做出贡献。这些应用研究活动有可能带来重大的经济和环境效益，因为可再生能源一体化的效率提高，电力网络的运行更加可靠。该计划还将培养一批具有广泛市场前景的研究生。他们将在各种行业中找到机会，包括能源，信息技术，控制和教育。

The ultimate objective of the proposed research program is to develop an intelligent framework for effective use of weather information in planning, design, and operation of sustainable electric power systems. The framework will form the basis of an intelligent weather-based decision support system for the electrical power industry. This system will combine monitoring, forecasting, information processing, and visualization functions, to support the decision-making. In the short term, this program will concentrate on two research objectives. 1) To develop advanced tools for modelling and forecasting of energy production from renewable sources. We will improve the accuracy of the production models, add ability to forecast rapid changes in energy output, and develop new methods for estimating forecast uncertainty. These innovative tools will be based on a combination of weather prediction and pattern recognition techniques. 2) To model the effects of the environment on EPS. This research will focus on forecasting the magnitude and localization of ice storms, on planning of transmission-constrained renewable generation portfolios, and on the design of new transmission corridors. This research program will develop the foundations for energy-related weather forecasting, and contribute to various application areas within the electric power industry. These applied research activities have the potential to bring significant economic and environmental benefits due to the increased efficiency of renewable energy integration, and more reliable operation of electric power networks. The program will also train a number of graduate students with broad marketability. They will find opportunities in a variety of industries, including energy, information technology, control, and education.