Modelling and forecasting environmental effects on renewable energy production and power system operation

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The ultimate objective of the proposed research program is to develop an intelligent framework for effective use of weather information in planning, design, and operation of sustainable electric power systems. The framework will form the basis of an intelligent weather-based decision support system for the electrical power industry. This system will combine monitoring, forecasting, information processing, and visualization functions, to support the decision-making. In the short term, this program will concentrate on two research objectives. 1) To develop advanced tools for modelling and forecasting of energy production from renewable sources. We will improve the accuracy of the production models, add ability to forecast rapid changes in energy output, and develop new methods for estimating forecast uncertainty. These innovative tools will be based on a combination of weather prediction and pattern recognition techniques. 2) To model the effects of the environment on EPS. This research will focus on forecasting the magnitude and localization of ice storms, on planning of transmission-constrained renewable generation portfolios, and on the design of new transmission corridors. This research program will develop the foundations for energy-related weather forecasting, and contribute to various application areas within the electric power industry. These applied research activities have the potential to bring significant economic and environmental benefits due to the increased efficiency of renewable energy integration, and more reliable operation of electric power networks. The program will also train a number of graduate students with broad marketability. They will find opportunities in a variety of industries, including energy, information technology, control, and education.