Multi-resolution lake-river framework for simulating streamflows from regional climate model generated runoff for the Nelson-Churchill watershed

由于气候变化的密切联系，将对世界各地的水资源产生重大影响 气候和水文循环之间的关系。作为公用事业单位和省级、国家级和全球性的 马尼托巴省水电公司(MH)将在许多方面受到气候变化的挑战。相关信息 对径流特性的变化对水库的运行、规划和适应具有重要意义 在气候变化背景下的水电站水库和发电站。卫生部目前正在进行一项 为更好地了解气候变化的潜在影响而采取的若干举措，特别侧重于 纳尔逊-丘吉尔分水岭(NCW)的能源需求、极端事件和供水。根据 全球气候模式(GCM)，NCW预计将经历相当大的季节性变化 降雨量，这也将反映在季节和年度径流中。管理未来的水 资源，以最大限度地提高水力发电量，对卫生部来说，重要的是将这些预测的 气候模型产生的径流到径流的变化。朝这个方向迈出的第一步将是 建立与区域气候模型(RCM)相兼容的湖泊-河流框架， 由MH考虑，并寻求申请人的专业知识。因此，这项活动拨款将促进 在卫生部和申请人之间建立新的研究伙伴关系，以建立多项决议 NCW从RCM产生的径流估算径流的湖泊-河流框架，及其 验证。将特别强调更好地代表地下水对 径流，它作为土壤特性和土壤水分状态的函数在NCW上变化。这 框架将有助于MH了解径流分布和极端径流的季节性变化， 对于适应气候变化的水库运行至关重要。

Climate change will have significant impacts on water resources around the world due to the close connection between climate and the hydrologic cycle. As a utility and a member of the provincial, national and global community, Manitoba Hydro (MH) will be challenged by climate change on many fronts. Information related to changes in streamflow characteristics is important for the operations, planning and adaptation of hydroelectric reservoirs and power stations in the context of a changing climate. MH is currently undertaking a number of initiatives to better understand the potential impacts of climate change, with a particular focus on energy demand, extreme events, and water supply for the Nelson-Churchill Watershed (NCW). According to the Global Climate Models (GCMs), the NCW is expected to experience considerable changes in seasonal precipitation amounts, which will also be reflected in the seasonal and annual runoff. To manage future water resources to maximize hydroelectric power generation, it is important for MH to translate these projected changes in runoff generated by climate models to streamflows. The first step in this direction will be to establish a lake-river framework, compatible with the Regional Climate Models (RCMs) that will be considered by MH, for which the expertise of the applicant is sought. This engage grant will thus foster the development of a new research partnership between MH and the applicant to establish a multi-resolution lake-river framework for the NCW for estimating streamflows from the RCM generated runoff, and its validation. Special emphasis will be put on better representing the ground water contribution to the streamflows, which varies across the NCW as a function of soil characteristics and soil moisture state. This framework will help MH in understanding seasonal shifts in streamflow distribution and extreme flows, which are crucial for adapting reservoir operations in a changing climate.