Decision making in dynamic systems with strategic information acquisition

通过战略信息获取动态系统中的决策

• 批准号: RGPIN-2014-04089
• 负责人: Cipriano, Lauren
• 金额: $ 1.82万
• 依托单位: University of Western Ontario
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2016-01-01 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=610828
• 关键词: Decision; making; dynamic; systems; strategic

The goal of my research is to develop a series of decision making frameworks in the context of dynamic systems (systems that change over time). In particular, I am interested in systems driven by population trends, behavior change, or technological advancement. Rapid technological evolution is changing public and private sector decision making. Correctly identifying which technologies to adopt and the optimal time to do so is increasingly a competitive advantage in the private sector (i.e., adopting robotics, switching software platforms). For example, when considering a change in technology, policy makers, businesses, and individuals must consider whether more information is needed to inform their decision, including what type, how much, and when to collect information. The uncertain prospect of a technology’s value over time (i.e., degree of profitability or magnitude of improvement in medical treatment outcomes) and the potential introduction of a new disruptive technology increases the complexity and difficulty of the decision making process. In the proposed research, I will develop operations research frameworks to address the challenges of technology adoption under uncertain future technological development and with the option to collect information. These models will advance the technology adoption literature with applications in both the public and private sectors.

我的研究目标是在动态系统(随时间变化的系统)的背景下开发一系列决策框架。特别是，我对由人口趋势、行为变化或技术进步驱动的系统感兴趣。快速的技术发展正在改变公共和私营部门的决策。在私营部门(即采用机器人技术、转换软件平台)中，正确确定采用哪些技术以及采用哪些技术的最佳时机日益成为一种竞争优势。例如，在考虑技术变化时，政策制定者、企业和个人必须考虑是否需要更多信息来指导他们的决策，包括收集什么类型、多少以及何时收集信息。随着时间的推移，一项技术的价值前景不确定(即医疗结果的盈利程度或改善程度)，以及可能引入一种新的颠覆性技术，增加了决策过程的复杂性和难度。在拟议的研究中，我将开发运筹学框架，以应对在不确定的未来技术发展下采用技术的挑战，并提供收集信息的选项。这些模式将推动技术采用文献在公共和私营部门的应用。