Decision making in dynamic systems with strategic information acquisition

通过战略信息获取动态系统中的决策

• 批准号: RGPIN-2014-04089
• 负责人: Cipriano, Lauren
• 金额: $ 1.82万
• 依托单位: University of Western Ontario
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=647753
• 关键词: Decision; making; dynamic; systems; strategic

The goal of my research is to develop a series of decision making frameworks in the context of dynamic systems (systems that change over time). In particular, I am interested in systems driven by population trends, behavior change, or technological advancement. Rapid technological evolution is changing public and private sector decision making. Correctly identifying which technologies to adopt and the optimal time to do so is increasingly a competitive advantage in the private sector (i.e., adopting robotics, switching software platforms). For example, when considering a change in technology, policy makers, businesses, and individuals must consider whether more information is needed to inform their decision, including what type, how much, and when to collect information. The uncertain prospect of a technology's value over time (i.e., degree of profitability or magnitude of improvement in medical treatment outcomes) and the potential introduction of a new disruptive technology increases the complexity and difficulty of the decision making process. In the proposed research, I will develop operations research frameworks to address the challenges of technology adoption under uncertain future technological development and with the option to collect information. These models will advance the technology adoption literature with applications in both the public and private sectors.

我的研究目标是在动态系统（随时间变化的系统）的背景下开发一系列决策框架。特别是，我对由人口趋势、行为变化或技术进步驱动的系统感兴趣。快速的技术发展正在改变公共和私营部门的决策。在私营部门，正确确定采用哪些技术和最佳时间越来越成为一种竞争优势（即，采用机器人技术，切换软件平台）。例如，在考虑技术变化时，政策制定者、企业和个人必须考虑是否需要更多的信息来为他们的决策提供信息，包括收集信息的类型、数量和时间。随着时间的推移，一项技术的价值前景（即盈利程度或医疗结果改善程度）的不确定性，以及可能引入新的颠覆性技术，增加了决策过程的复杂性和难度。在拟议的研究中，我将开发运筹学框架，以解决未来技术发展不确定的情况下技术采用的挑战，并可选择收集信息。这些模型将在公共和私营部门的应用中推进技术采用文献。