Inflow forecasting in Yukon under current and changing climate conditions

该项目的目标是在育空能源公司(YEC)的主要流域上实现一个分布式水文模拟系统。该系统将用于不同提前期(如1-14天)的业务水库流入预测，以及季节性和长期规划。长期规划将使用建模系统来预测气候变化对流入可获得性、流入时机和极端事件的影响。结果将为评估潜在能源项目提供战略信息，以向育空地区供应足够的电力，以满足预计的需求。了解气候变化及其相关影响将有助于其他进程，如重新许可活动。例如，爱石水电设施的用水许可证将于2019年12月31日到期续签。在对此次更新的预期中，YEC正在进行为期四年的环境和工程研究，并咨询主要利益相关者。这将遵循一个结构化的决策过程，以了解续签许可证的可操作方案，然后提交给育空地区环境和社会经济评估委员会进行评估，然后提交给育空地区水务委员会进行许可。

The objective of this project is to implement a distributed hydrological modeling system on key watersheds ofthe Yukon Energy Corporation (YEC). This system will be used for operational reservoir-inflow forecastingwith different lead times (e.g., 1-14 days) as well as seasonal and long-term planning. Long-term planning willuse the modeling system to predict impacts of climate change on inflow availability, inflow timing and extremeevents. The results will provide strategic information for the assessment of potential energy projects to supplyYukon with enough electricity to meet projected demands. Understanding climate change and associatedeffects will be useful to other processes such as relicensing activities. For example, the water license for theAishihik Hydroelectric Facility will come up for renewal on December 31, 2019. In anticipation for thisrenewal, YEC is undertaking a four-year process of environmental and engineering studies, consulting withmajor stakeholders. This will follow a structured decision-making process to understand operationalalternatives for the renewed license to submit to the Yukon Environmental and Socio-economic AssessmentBoard for assessment, then to the Yukon Water Board for licensing.