Inflow forecasting in Yukon under current and changing climate conditions

该项目的目标是在育空能源公司(YEC)的**主要流域实施一个分布式水文模拟系统。该系统将用于不同提前期(例如1-14天)的业务水库流入预测**以及季节性和长期规划。长期规划将**使用模拟系统来预测气候变化对流入可获得性、流入时机和极端事件的影响。这一结果将为评估潜在能源项目提供战略信息，为育空地区提供足够的电力来满足预计的需求。了解气候变化及其相关的**影响将有助于其他进程，如重新许可活动。例如，**爱石水电设施的用水许可证将于2019年12月31日到期续签。为预期此次**续期，YEC正在进行为期四年的环境和工程研究，并与**主要利益攸关方进行磋商。这将遵循一个结构化的决策过程，以了解可操作的**续签许可证的替代方案，提交给育空地区环境和社会经济评估委员会进行评估，然后提交给育空地区水务委员会进行许可。

The objective of this project is to implement a distributed hydrological modeling system on key watersheds of**the Yukon Energy Corporation (YEC). This system will be used for operational reservoir-inflow forecasting**with different lead times (e.g., 1-14 days) as well as seasonal and long-term planning. Long-term planning will**use the modeling system to predict impacts of climate change on inflow availability, inflow timing and extreme**events. The results will provide strategic information for the assessment of potential energy projects to supply**Yukon with enough electricity to meet projected demands. Understanding climate change and associated**effects will be useful to other processes such as relicensing activities. For example, the water license for the**Aishihik Hydroelectric Facility will come up for renewal on December 31, 2019. In anticipation for this**renewal, YEC is undertaking a four-year process of environmental and engineering studies, consulting with**major stakeholders. This will follow a structured decision-making process to understand operational**alternatives for the renewed license to submit to the Yukon Environmental and Socio-economic Assessment**Board for assessment, then to the Yukon Water Board for licensing.