Winter carbon losses in wetland ecosystem under current and future climates

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High latitude cold regions, including Arctic and northern areas of Canada, are warming more than twice as fast**as the rest of the planet, with the greatest warming occurring during the winter. Given that a major process**responsible for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, microbial respiration, increases with warming even at**sub-zero temperatures, winter is a critical period for carbon cycling. Consequently, CO2 emissions during the**non-growing season (NGS; fall, winter, spring) are expected to increase as the climate warms. However, there**is large uncertainty in estimates of current NGS CO2 emissions from cold region ecosystems. Canada's**temperate to subarctic wetlands and permafrost peatlands hold large stores of carbon which are susceptible to**loss under future climate warming scenarios. Therefore, understanding the factors which regulate the processes**controlling greenhouse gas emissions during the NGS is critical for predicting the fate of these vulnerable**carbon stocks and for creating climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. With a focus on these critical**ecosystems, we bring together Canadian leaders from multiple disciplines from across universities with federal**government scientists and policy makers to determine the drivers of NGS carbon cycling, develop**process-based environmental models, and estimate CO2 emissions. In doing so, we will address the knowledge**gaps on NGS emissions to provide data and tools to evaluate the impact of winter warming mitigation in**controlling carbon losses from pan-Canadian wetland ecosystems. Through a combination of historical data**synthesis, laboratory experiments and modelling, the proposed research will focus on 1) determining the**hydrological and climatic factors driving microbial NGS carbon cycling; and 2) integrating the information and**data gained into models describing the underlying processes controlling NGS emissions for incorporation into**the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS). This will advance our ability to track**and predict carbon fluxes in cold regions wetland ecosystems and make improved, evidence-based**recommendations to estimate winter carbon losses and evaluate mitigation strategies.