Sunspot Equilibria in Infinite Horizon Competitive Economics

这个项目有助于我们了解宏观经济不稳定的原因。它调查了太阳黑子均衡--理性预期均衡，其中资源的分配对没有内在意义的随机事件做出反应--在各种无限范围竞争模型中存在的条件。这是一条重要的研究路线，因为太阳黑子均衡意味着代理人的信念可以自我实现，竞争均衡可能是不确定和不稳定的。虽然年轻，但这位研究员被认为是研究太阳黑子平衡的最好的研究人员之一。他有能力完成这个项目的目标。要解决的问题包括：没有或有债权市场的作用；代理人优化的有限而不是无限的视野的作用；以及限制以未来收入为抵押的借款在允许太阳黑子平衡波动发生方面的作用。特别强调货币理论感兴趣的模型--重叠的世代模型、预付现金模型和持有货币以平息收入波动的模型。对替代货币政策制度进行比较，看它们是否允许这种内生波动。

This project contributes to our understanding of the causes of macroeconomic instability. It investigates the conditions under which sunspot equilibria-- rational expectations equilibria in which the allocation of resources responds to random events of no intrinsic significance-- exist in a variety of infinite horizon competitive models. This is an important line of research because sunspot equilibria imply that agents' beliefs can be self-fulfilling and that competitive equilibria can be indeterminate and unstable. Although young, the investigator is considered one of the best researchers studying sunspot equilibria. He is capable of accomplishing the goals of this project. Issues to be addresed include the role of absence of contingent claims markets, the role of finite as opposed to infinite horizons over which agents optimize, and the role of restrictions upon borrowing against future income, in allowing sunspot equilibrium fluctuations to occur. Particular emphasis is given to models of interest to monetary theory-- overlapping generations models, cash-in-advance models, and models where money is held to smooth income fluctuations. Alternative monetary policy regimes are compared as to whether they allow endogenous fluctuations of this kind or not.