Mathematical Sciences: Predictive Likelihood

该项目涉及研究方法， 仅基于似然函数的预测。 确定 这些预测的可能性在多大程度上可能是明智的， 使用和程度，他们可以解释为 是本课题的一个重要理论目标。 收盘 这些可能性和参数之间的联系 可能性允许研究之间的相互关系 预测主义和从可能性的角度估计。 预测或预报在所有方面都是有用和重要的 科学领域，往往是潜在的原因， 建立和拟合统计模型。 这项研究解决了一个问题，即预测 应该从假设的统计模型中提取可能性。

This project is concerned with studying methods of prediction based on the likelihood function alone. Determining the extent to which these predictive likelihoods may be sensibly used and the extent to which they may be inerpreted as pivotals is an important theoretical objective of this project. The close connection between these likelihoods and the parametric likelihoods allows for a study of the interrelationship between predictivism and estimation from a likelihood perspective. Prediction or forecasting is useful and important in all areas of science and is often the underlying reason for formulating and fitting statistical models in the first place. This research addresses the question of how a predictive likelihood should be extracted from an assumed statistical model.