Econometric Analysis of Decision Making (Accomplishment Based Renewal)

计量经济学提供了统计工具， 从真实的世界数据中提取经济关系。 该等估计乃 用于检验经济理论和政策分析。 但 计量经济学实践也倾向于强加强有力的假设， 估计的前奏。 该项目的目标是 通过发展计量经济学方法改进现行做法， 需要较少的限制性假设，对于 限制性假设是不可避免的，衡量权衡 在可估计性和假设强度之间。 本项目研究的具体计量经济学方法包括 动态选择分析。 通常的动态方法 决策是向后递归，即，工程师应 开始解决他可能面临的每一个终端问题 然后再倒推以确定今天的最佳行动。 但是，通过向后递归直接分析动态选择， 强大的建模和计算问题。 这个项目开发了一种令人兴奋的动态选择的新方法 不需要对未来进行限制性假设。 该项目表明，推理可以基于一个相对， 一种简单的、部分简化形式的向后静态表示 递归 这种方法适用于生活的版本- 循环消费问题，重复博弈与序贯 取样. 这些方法被用于一项主要的实证研究， 教育和职业选择。

Econometrics provides the statistical tools for estimating economic relationships from real world data. These estimates are used to test economic theories and for policy analysis. But econometric practice also tends to impose strong assumptions as a prelude to estimation. The objective of this project is to improve current practice by developing econometric methods that require less restrictive assumptions and, for problems where restrictive assumptions are inescapable, measuring the trade-offs between estimability and the strength of the assumptions. The specific econometric methods studied by this project involve analysis of dynamic choice. The usual approach to dynamic decision making is backwards recursion, i.e., the agent should begin by solving each of the terminal problems that he might face and then work backwards to determine the optimal action today. But direct analysis of dynamic choice by backward recursion poses formidable modelling and computational problems. This project develops an exciting new approach to dynamic choice that does not require restrictive assumptions about the future. The project shows that inference can be based on a relatively, simple, partly-reduced form static representation of backwards recursion. This approach is applied to versions of the life- cycle consumption problem, repeated games and sequential sampling. The methods are used in a major empirical study of schooling and career choice.