Studies of Scientists' Uncertainty and Disagreement about Global Climate Change

该项目涉及科学家对大气中二氧化碳和其他“温室气体”预期积聚的判断。由于有关温室效应的科学知识存在重大空白，政策制定者被迫依赖科学家对气候变化速度及其影响的判断。现在看来，尽管科学家之间仍存在不确定性和分歧，但仍将不得不做出重大的政策决定。尽管它很重要，但关于温室效应的科学判断还没有得到系统的研究。依托判断研究得出的理论和方法，该项目将确定影响对温室效应做出科学判断的关键因素。参与温室研究的科学家将接受调查，并确定科学界的具体“观点”。对不同观点支持者的后续访谈将探讨关键领域出现分歧的原因。通过正常渠道传达给政策制定者的对科学不确定性和分歧的描述将与本研究的结果进行比较。这项研究将使人们更好地理解温室效应的科学分歧的根源。

This project concerns scientists' judgments regarding the anticipated buildup of carbon dioxide and other "greenhouse gases" in the atmosphere. Since there are major gaps in scientific knowledge about the greenhouse effect, policy makers are forced to rely on scientists' judgments about the rate of climate change and its effects. It now appears that significant policy decisions will have to be made in spite of continuing uncertainty and disagreement among scientists. Despite its importance, scientific judgment about the greenhouse effect has not been systematically studied. Relying on theory and methods derived from judgment research, the project will identify the critical elements that affect scientific judgment about the greenhouse effect. Scientists involved in greenhouse research will be surveyed, and specific "points of view" in the scientific community will be identified. Follow-up interviews of proponents of the various points of view will probe reasons for disagreements in critical areas. The description of scientific uncertainty and disagreement that is communicated to policy makers by normal channels will be compared with the results of this study. The study will result in an improved understanding of the roots of scientific disagreement about the greenhouse effect.