International Conflict Among the Great Powers

该奖项支持一项雄心勃勃的研究计划，以促进对可能促进或阻止主要国际大国之间战争的条件的理解。关于国际关系的一个长期存在的假设是，国际体系的结构显著地影响着战争的可能性，但很少得到系统的检验。特别是，人们认为，战争的可能性随着国际体系中关于战争可能结果的不确定程度的增加而增加。这又与国际体系中国家和联盟的数量和相对实力有关。本研究发展并检验了一系列关于战争概率的假设，这些假设来自一个理论模型，该模型将国际体系的结构与国家决策者承担风险的倾向相结合。对这些假设的系统检验将使用自1816年以来已编录的大国竞争的人口数据。此外，还将对典型案例和偏差案例进行比较研究，以更详细地说明统计分析的结果，并阐明薄弱的领域。最后，将探讨分析的含义，以寻求在当代国际体系中减少大国战争可能性的可能教训。完成后，这项研究将加强我们对不同国际结构或世界秩序对战争可能性的影响的理论理解，并促进对国际结构拟议变化的可取性的判断。

This award supports an ambitious program of research to advance understanding of the conditions likely to promote or discourage war between major international powers. A long standing assumption of international relations, but one rarely tested systematically, is that the structure of the international system significantly influences the probability of war. In particular, it is held that the probability of war increases with the level of uncertainty in the international system about the likely outcome of war. This is linked in turn to the number and relative power of nations and alliances in the international system. This research develops and tests a series of hypotheses about the probability of war which derive from a theoretical model integrating the structure of the international system with the propensity of national decision makers to take risks. Systematic tests of these hypotheses will be undertaken using data on the population of great power rivalries that have been catalogued since 1816. In addition comparative case studies of both typical and deviant cases will be undertaken to illustrate in greater detail the results of the statistical analyses and to illuminate areas of weakness. Finally, the implications of the analysis will be explored for possible lessons for reducing the likelihood of great power war in the contemporary international system. When completed this research will strengthen our theoretical understanding of the effects of different international structures or world orders on the likelihood of war and facilitate judgements about the desirability about proposed changes in international structure.