Crime Causation and the Linkage Between Past and Future Criminal Offending

在犯罪学中最有据可查的实证研究中， 过去和未来犯罪之间的正相关 一 这种关联（称为状态依赖）的解释是 先前的犯罪事实上会增加未来的犯罪 倾向 另一个（称为人口异质性）是， 关联不是因果关系的反映， 是由于个体之间的持续差异， 他们犯罪的倾向 其中之一 许多相互竞争的一般理论都提出了这种解释。 犯罪 然而，很少有研究试图 区分这两种根本不同的解释。 本项目将从统计学上区分 在对所观察到的正相关性的两种解释中 过去和未来的犯罪行为之间的联系 两个众所周知的面板数据 集将用于研究-全国青年调查， 美国青年与法林顿和韦斯特的纵向调查 英国男性 这项研究不仅将解决相对 状态依赖和异质性在解释 过去的犯罪行为与未来的犯罪行为之间的积极联系， 但它也将阐明 犯罪的个体、家庭和行为因素的多样性 参与。 因此，本文的研究将做出重要的贡献 现存的一般犯罪理论

Among the best documented empirical regularities in criminology is the positive association between past and future criminality. One interpretation of this association (termed state dependence) is that prior criminal involvement actually increases future criminal propensity. Another (termed population heterogeneity) is that the association is not a reflection of a causal relationship but rather is attributable to persistent differences across individuals in their propensity to engage in crime. One or the other of these interpretations is suggested by many competing general theories of crime. Yet there has been little research attempting to distinguish these two fundamentally different explanations. This project will statistically distinguish the relative importance of the two explanations for the observed positive correlation between past and future criminality. Two widely known panel data sets will be used for the research--the National Youth Survey of U.S. youths and the Farrington and West longitudinal survey of English males. Not only will this research address the relative contributions of state dependence and heterogeneity in explaining the positive association of past to future delinquency/criminality, but also it will illuminate the nature of the association of a variety of individual, familial, and behavioral factors to criminal involvement. Thus, the research will make important contributions to extant general theories of crime.