International Relations Theory: A Formal Approach

目前许多最有影响力的国际方法， 关系理论呼吁国际间的类比， 制度和寡头垄断市场。 然而，现有的正式 寡头垄断的经济模型在国际上很少有对应的 关系理论。 在这项研究中，研究人员开发了一种 国际关系理论的正式方法， 把这个类比形式化。 调查人员的初步研究已经制定了一项 两极国际体系的自然模式;建立 充分的条件，以确保和平的存在。 平衡，其中没有国家的攻击;表明，有一个 严格帕累托占优的和平均衡收益对; 具有独特的纯战略性，和平，马尔可夫完美 能产生这些收益的均衡 在模型中， 战斗的成本，一个国家的风险规避水平，一个国家的 折扣系数，和优势的打击首先显示， 提高系统内军备的均衡水平。 更 一般来说，该模型提供了一个框架，用于分析更广泛的 国际关系理论中的问题，包括 无政府状态以及绝对和相对收益的问题。 的 目前的研究扩展了这一模型， 不完全信息，将模型与现有的正式工作联系起来 关于危机谈判，并扩大分析范围， 涉及国际政治经济学的几个问题。

Many of the most influential current approaches to international relations theory appeal to analogies between the international system and oligopolistic markets. However, the existing formal economic models of oligopoly have few counterparts in international relations theory. In this research the investigator develops a formal approach to international relations theory by beginning to formalize this analogy. Preliminary research by the investigator has already developed a natural model of a bipolar international system; established conditions sufficient to ensure the existence of a peaceful equilibrium in which neither state attacks; shown that there is a strictly Pareto dominant pair of peaceful equilibrium payoffs; and characterized the unique pure-stragey, peaceful, Markov perfect equilibrium that yields these payoffs. In the model, increases in the cost of fighting, a state's level of risk aversion, a state's discount factor, and the advantages of striking first are shown to increase the equilibrium level of armaments in the system. More generally, the model provides a framework for analyzing broader issues in international relations theory including the role of anarchy and the problem of absolute and relative gains. The current research extends this model in an effort to incorporate incomplete information, link the model with existing formal work on crisis bargaining, and broaden the scope of the analysis to encompass several issues in international political economy.