Intuitive Toxicology: Studies of Expert and Lay Judgments of Chemical Risks

本项目旨在了解构成外行人“直觉毒理学”系统的认知模型、假设和推理方法，并将该系统与毒理学家和风险评估者的认知模型、假设和推理方法进行比较。这种比较将揭示专家和非专业人士群体内部的异同，以及非专业人士的看法和专家观点之间的差异。在这个项目的过程中，将设计、实施和报告几个实证研究。这些研究应该为专家和外行提供关于化学品危害和用于评估化学品风险的科学方法的现有概念框架的更清晰、更清晰的表述。这种陈述对于改进风险评估方法和发展风险管理过程至关重要，该过程以关于化学品风险和利益的有效多方式沟通取代两极分化的社会冲突。

This project aims to understand the cognitive models, assumptions, and inference methods the comprise the layperson's system of "intuitive toxicology" and to compare this system with the cognitive models, assumptions, and inference methods of toxicologists and risk assessors. Such comparisons would expose the similarities and differences within the expert and lay communities as well as the differences between lay perceptions and expert views. Several empirical studies will be designed, conducted, and reported during the course of this project. These studies should produce clearer, better articulated representation of the conceptual frameworks that exist for experts and laypeople with regard to chemical hazards and the scientific methods used to assess chemical risks. Such representations are crucial for improved methods of risk assessment and for the development of a risk-management process that replaces polarized social conflict with effective multi-way communication about chemical risks and benefits.