Valuing Lives You Can Save: Understanding and Combatting Value Collapse as Numbers Increase

在一个理性的世界里，随着生命威胁的规模增加，保护这些生命的潜在努力应该成比例地增加。不幸的是，在许多情况下，情况恰恰相反。面对更大的威胁，同情心和社会关切不仅没有增加，反而减少了。这里提出的研究旨在考察这种反常现象的心理基础，并检验其对估值理论模型的重要性，以及更广泛地说，对社会福利的重要性。本研究使用一个网络小组进行了八项研究，包括组成部分的子研究，总共约16个实验。展望理论可以说是决策领域最重要的描述性理论框架。根据这一理论，人类生命的价值遵循着一个不断增加的函数，随着处于危险中的生命数量的增加，对威胁的总体重视程度也越来越高。研究人员已经找到了对这一功能的经验支持，但一些人认为，除了前景理论中描述的形式外，对生命的估值还有其他形式。这项研究测试了这样的假设，即在某些情况下，“死亡的人越多，我们关心的越少”，这是一种与前景理论不一致的估值形式。在某些情况下，估值可能遵循逆U形轨迹，随着生命危险的增加而上升，直到某一门槛，但随后随着人数的增加而崩溃。除了前景理论的这种理论扩展之外，本研究还具有重要的实践意义。面对大规模危机时，生命的贬值可能有助于我们理解未能积极应对贫困、疾病、饥荒、自然灾害、暴力和物种灭绝构成的大规模威胁。我们还希望，这种理解将通过改进分析和审议过程以及创建旨在克服价值崩溃的法律和机构，为更好的决策指明方向。

In a rational world, as threats to life increase in scale, potential efforts to protect those lives should increase proportionally. Unfortunately, in many circumstances, the opposite occurs. Compassion and societal concerns decrease rather than increase in the face of larger threats. The studies proposed here aim to examine the psychological underpinnings of this perverse phenomenon and examine its importance for theoretical models of valuation and, more broadly, for the welfare of society. The research uses a web panel to conduct eight studies that, with comoponent substudies, total around sixteen experiments.Prospect theory is arguably the most important descriptive theoretical framework in the field of decision making. According to this theory, valuation of human life follows an ever-increasing function that places greater overall importance on the threat as the number of lives at risk increases. Researchers have found empirical support for this function, but some believe that valuation of lives takes other forms besides that depicted in prospect theory. This research tests the hypothesis that, in some instances, "the more who die, the less we care," a form of valuation that is inconsistent with prospect theory. In some contexts, valuation may follow an inverse-U trajectory, rising with increasing numbers of lives at stake up to a threshold, but then collapsing as the number continues to increase.In addition to this theoretical extension of prospect theory, the research has important practical implications. Devaluation of life in the face of large-scale crises may help us understand failures to respond aggressively to mass threats posed by poverty, disease, famine, natural disasters, violence, and species extinction. We hope, as well, that this understanding will point the way toward better decisions through improved processes of analysis and deliberation and the creation of laws and institutions designed to overcome value collapse.