Predictability and Maintenance of Variance in Atmospheric Flows

首席研究人员和其他人最近的理论和观测研究支持这样的观点，即气旋发生代表着有利配置的大气流动扰动的快速瞬时增长。结果表明，该理论模式的要素可能有更广泛的应用，即在简单气流中天气尺度波的起源及其方差的维持。这也可以延伸到时空流动不均匀在将变化组织成风暴路径方面的作用。法雷尔博士将使用与正压和准地转模型相关的随机动力学方程进行这项研究。此外，法雷尔博士还将继续使用最佳摄动技术对大气流动的可预测性极限进行研究。他试图澄清背景流在决定扰动增长率(和降低的可预测性)中的作用。这一领域的研究对天气预报具有重要的影响和改进的潜力。

Recent theoretical and observational studies by the principal investigator and others support the view that cyclogenesis represents the rapid transient growth of favorably configured, or "optimal", perturbations of atmospheric flow. Results suggest that elements of this theoretical model may have wider application, namely, to the origin of synoptic scale waves and the maintenance of their variance in simple flows. This also could extend to the role of spatial and temporal flow inhomogeneity in organizing variance into storm tracks. Dr. Farrell will employ the stochastic dynamic equations associated with the barotropic and quasi- geostrophic models for this investigation. In addition, Dr. Farrell will continue his investigations into the limits of predictability of atmospheric flows using optimal perturbation techniques. He seeks to clarify the role of the background flow in determining the rate of perturbation growth (and decreased predictability). This area of research has important implications for, and potential to improve, weather forecasting.