Credit and Business Cycles

9320546 Kiyotaki商业周期的一个主要特征是总产出、信贷总量和资产价格的大幅度、持续和相关的波动。该项目将从理论上研究信贷约束如何在商业周期中与总体经济活动相互作用。特别是，对于信贷限额由内生因素决定的经济体，研究将侧重于对技术或收入的相对较小的暂时冲击如何产生产出和资产价格的持续大幅波动。此外，问题还在于，对某一特定经济部门的冲击如何传导到其他部门，从而使不同部门的产出和信贷总量一起变动。一个经济的动态一般均衡模型被开发出来，其中信贷约束自然产生，因为除非债务有担保，否则贷方不能强迫借款人偿还债务。信贷限额和资产价格之间的动态相互作用预计将成为一种强大的传导机制，通过这种机制，冲击的影响将持续、放大并溢出到其他部门。本研究的重要意义在于，它不仅有助于更好地理解信贷体系中周期的传播机制，而且还将为商业和居民投资与信贷约束的实证研究提供一个有用的框架。＊＊＊

9320546 Kiyotaki One of the major features of the business cycle is the large, persistent, and correlated fluctuations of aggregate output, amount of credit and asset prices. This project will study theoretically how credit constraints interact with aggregate economic activity over the business cycle. In particular, for an economy where credit limits are endogenously determined the research will focus how relatively small, temporary shocks to technology or income generate large, persistent fluctuations in output and asset prices. Also, it is asked how shocks to a particular sector of the economy can transmit to the other sectors so that output and the amount of credit of different sectors move together. A dynamic general-equilibrium model of an economy is developed in which credit constraints arise naturally because lenders cannot force borrowers to repay debts unless debts are secured. The dynamic interaction between credit limits and asset prices is expected to be a powerful transmission mechanism by which the effects of shock persist, amplify, and spill over to the other sectors. This research is important because it will not only provide for a better understanding of the propagation mechanism of cycles through the credit system, but will also provide a useful framework for the empirical studies on business and residential investment and credit constraints. ***