An Investigation of Judgmental Reliability

关于判断可靠性的调查该提案涉及判断可靠性(概念上由两部分组成--信息获取的可靠性和信息处理的可靠性)对判断准确性的影响。PI建议对专家(阅读乳房X光照片的放射科医生)进行研究，并进行实验室研究，这是一种松散的放射诊断模拟。这一概念框架是布伦斯瑞克透镜模型的扩展版本。文献回顾表明，尽管专家判断的可靠性存在个体差异，但在专家判断的研究中，可靠性这一主题一直被忽视。提出的第一项研究将让10名放射科医生阅读一组100张乳房X光照片两次。他们还会对每一张乳房X光照片的一组特征进行两次判断，以提供信息获取可靠性的证据。第二项研究是一项实验模拟，给受试者提供视觉线索或视觉和数字线索(如年龄等)。在概率上与结果相关。将给出基线和反馈试验。受试者将在一些试验块中判断结果，并在其他试验块中判断线索。在所有情况下，标准都将与线索线性相关。

An Investigation of Judgmental Reliability The proposal deals with the effects of the reliability of judgment (conceptualized as consisting of two parts--reliability of information acquisition and reliability of information processing) on judgment accuracy. The PI proposes a study of experts (radiologists reading mammograms) and a lab study that is a loose analog of radiographic diagnosis. The conceptual framework is an expanded version of Brunswik's lens model. The review of the literature shows that the topic of reliability has been neglected in the study of expert judgment, although it is known that there are individual differences in judgment reliability. The first study proposed would have 10 radiologists read a set of 100 mammograms twice. They would also judge a set of features of each mammogram twice to provide evidence about reliability of information acquisition. The second study is an experimental analog in which subjects are given visual cues or visual and numerical cues (such as age, etc.) which are probabilistically related to an outcome. Baseline and feedback trials will be given. Subjects will judge the outcome in some blocks of trials and will judge the cues in other blocks of trials. The criterion will be linearly related to the cues in all cases.