Economic Integration, Competition and Welfare: A Study of the Automobile Industry in Europe

经济一体化对竞争和福利的影响已经引起经济学家的兴趣一段时间了。对于任何对这些问题感兴趣的人来说，20世纪80年代和90年代的欧洲汽车工业提供了一个独特的研究实验。该工业的特点是严重的内部和外部贸易壁垒，其中许多已于1992年消除。考虑到该行业的寡头垄断结构和工会的存在，市场力量和劳动力租金问题似乎是一个先验的重要问题。此外，欧洲国家汽车价格的特点是各国之间存在巨大而持久的差异，这通常被视为市场分割和价格歧视做法的结果。从经验上看，欧洲市场的价格分散与汇率的大幅变动和不断变化的各国增值税的巨大差异同时发生，这两者都必然受到经济一体化进程的影响。本项目的目的是利用1980 - 1996年期间七个欧洲国家所有现有车型的价格、特点、市场份额和生产地点的详细数据，阐明这些问题并估计经济一体化各方面的影响。与以往采用校准方法的研究相反，本研究基于对相关参数的计量经济学估计。本研究分三步进行。第一种是进行描述性分析，以记录价格数据中的基本模式，并使用简化形式方法将其与汇率和税率、人口特征和贸易限制等因素联系起来。一个特别令人感兴趣的问题是，随着欧洲一体化进程的推进和欧洲货币联盟（European Monetary Union）成立之年的临近，欧洲各国的物价是否会随着时间的推移而趋于一致。第二步是估计具有产品差异化的寡头垄断结构模型，获得政策模拟和福利计算所需的需求和成本参数。该模型包含汇率波动、税收差异和多国生产。除了形成模拟的基础之外，结构框架还提供了对行业中未观察到的边际成本和加价的估计的优势。需要这些估计是为了处理经济一体化对竞争的影响。分析的第三步是在模拟中使用估计的结构模型参数来研究经济一体化对欧洲国家福利的各个方面的影响。一体化的四个主要方面是：(a)消除内部关税壁垒；(b)税收协调；(c)向共同货币过渡；(d)消除市场分割和价格歧视。

The effects of economic integration on competition and welfare have been of interest to economists for some time. For anyone interested in these issues, the European automobile industry during the 1980s and 1990s provides a unique study experiment. The industry has been characterized by significant internal and external trade barriers, many of which were eliminated in 1992. Issues of market power and labor rents seem a priori important, given the oligopolistic structure of the sector and the presence of unions. In addition, car prices in European countries are characterized by large and persistent differences across countries, that are often viewed as the result of market segmentation and price discriminating practices. Empirically, the price dispersion in the European market coincides with large exchange rate movements and substantial, evolving cross country differences in value added taxes, botch of which are bound to be affected by the process of economic integration. The purpose of this project is to shed light on these issues and estimate the effects of various aspects of economic integration, using detailed data on prices, characteristics, market shares and production location of all available car models in seven European countries over the period 1980 1996. Contrary to previous studies that employed a calibration approach, this study is based on econometric estimates of the relevant parameters. This research proceeds in three steps. The first is to carry out a descriptive analysis to document the basic patterns in the price data and relate them to factors such as exchange and tax rates, demographic characteristics, and trade restrictions, using a reduced form approach. A question of particular interest is whether prices across European countries appear to converge over time, as European integration progresses and the year for the European Monetary Union approaches. The second step is to estimate a structural model of oligopoly with product differentiation, to obtain the demand and cost parameters required in policy simulations and welfare calculations. The model incorporates exchange rate fluctuations, tax differences, and multicountry production. Apart from forming the basis for the simulations, the structural framework offers the advantage of providing estimates of the unobserved marginal costs and markups in the industry. These estimates are required in order to address the effects of economic integration on competition. The third step in the analysis is to use the estimated structural model parameters in simulations to investigate the effects of various aspects of economic integration on welfare in European countries. The four main aspects of integration are: (a) removal of internal tariff barriers, (b) tax harmonization, (c) transition to a common currency, and (d) elimination of market segmentation and price discrimination.