Non-Additive Utility Theories for Uncertain Alterations Into Mixed Consequences

吕斯 实验研究和决策分析师试图使用现存的模型来预测人们的行为，涉及收益和损失的混合后果的决策并不非常成功。 出现问题的例子是医疗决策。 由于这些应用的重要性，迫切需要开发和测试更好的模型。 PI最近的理论工作已经表明了为什么会出现麻烦。 他已经表明，在非常合理的，经验可检验的条件下，计算应该使用比通常使用的后果效用加权平均值复杂得多的表达式。 事实上，他从略有不同的假设中得出了两种不同的数学形式。 该项目的一个目标是将这些假设直接相互对立，并根据经验看看哪一个更准确。 此外，还将尝试确定这些新表达式是否实际上提供了对观察到的行为的改进预测。 一些数值拟合将基于现有的数据，但需要大量的额外数据进行更彻底的测试。 PI将继续在理论上开发该地区。 特别是，他将相当多的注意力集中在加权函数的形式上，这些加权函数的性质远不如效用函数的性质那么具体。

Luce Experimental studies and attempts by decision analysists to use extant models to predict people's behavior for decisions involving mixed consequences of both gains and losses have not been very successful. Examples where trouble has been seen is in medical decision making. Because of the great importance of such applications, it is urgent that better models be developed and tested. Recent theoretical work by the PI has shown why the troubles may arise. He has shown under very plausible, empirically testable conditions that the computations one should use considerably more complex expressions than the weighted averages of utilities of consequences that are commonly employed. Indeed, he derived two distinct mathematical forms from slightly different assumptions. One goal of the project is to pit these assumptions against one another directly and to see empirically which is more accurate. Also, attempts will be made to determine whether these new expressions actually provide improved predictions of observed behavior. Some numerical fitting will be based on existing data, but considerable additional data are needed for more thorough-going tests. The PI will continue to develop the area theoretically. In particular, he will focus considerable attention on the form of the weighting functions whose properties as far less specified than are those of the utility function.