Continuing Study of the Dynamics of Long-Term Climate Change

该奖项旨在继续研究长期气候变化，旨在开发一种预测理论，可以解释气候变量共同进化的不断增加的地质代用证据。 这些变量可以被细分为（a）相对快速地平衡的快速响应大气和表面状态量，以及（B）慢响应、高惯性量（例如，冰盖质量、深海温度、碳存量），它们承载着主要的长期演变，构成了吸引快速响应变量的气候系统“中心流形”。 这些研究涉及对有关时间序列记录的统计分析，以及基于大气环流模型（控制气候系统的快速反应、平衡、部分）和动态系统模型（控制缓慢反应、非平衡过程）的理论研究。 目的是在几个方向上扩大目前晚新生代气候演化的理论。

This award is for continued studies of long-term climatic change aimed at developing a predictive theory that can account for the ever-increasing geological proxy evidence for the co-evolution of the climatic variables. These variables can be subdivided into (a) the fast response atmospheric and surface state quantities that equilibrate relatively rapidly, and (b) the slow-response, high-inertia quantities (e.g., ice sheet mass, deep ocean temperature, carbon inventories) that carry the main long-term evolution and comprise the "center manifold" of the climate system to which the fast response variables are attracted. The studies involve statistical analyses of the relevant time-series records, and theoretical studies based on both general circulation models (governing the fast-response, equilibrium, parts of the climate system) and dynarnical-system models (governing the slow-response, non-equilibrium processes). The goal is to enlarge upon present theories of late Cenozoic climatic evolution in several directions.