The Physics of Hurricane Intensity Change

格雷博士和他的同事们将继续对热带气旋的基本结构和动力学进行研究，重点是强度变化的机制。 这项工作的一个特别具有挑战性和有趣的部分将是探索飓风内核的性质和被称为“眼墙”的区域的演变。 将对一个较新的观测来源-全球定位系统落风探空仪进行审查，它应能提供比以往更为详细的资料。 将继续研究的其他专题包括研究造成热带气旋外围区域变化的过程、影响这些风暴最大潜在强度的因素以及改进预测飓风结构和强度变化的方法。 除了下投式探空仪，研究人员还将利用卫星数据，特别是卫星获得的风、地面和飞机飞行高度数据。 虽然近年来对热带气旋路径的预测有了很大的改进，但对热带气旋强度的预测却并非如此。 这项研究的结果可能会对提高我们的理解并最终预测风暴强度产生重大影响。该项目由中尺度动力气象学和大尺度动力气象学方案共同支助。

Dr. Gray and his colleagues will continue their investigations into the basic structure and dynamics of tropical cyclones, focusing on the mechanisms responsible for intensity change. A particularly challenging and intriguing part of the work will be an exploration of the nature of the inner core of the hurricane and the evolution of the region known as the "eye wall". A relatively new source of observations, the GPS dropwindsondes, will be examined and should provide far more detailed information than has been available previously. Other topics to be pursued include studies of processes responsible for variations in the tropical cyclone's outer region, factors that influence the maximum potential intensity of these storms, and improving methods for predicting changes in hurricane structure and intensity. In addition to the dropwindsondes, the reseachers will employ satellite data, particularly satellite-derived winds; surface, and aircraft flight level data. Although there have been significant improvements in recent years in the forecasting of tropical cyclone tracks, the same is not true with respect to the forecasting tropical cyclone intensity. The results of this research could have significant impact for improving our understanding and, ultimately, forecasting storm intensity. This project is jointly supported by the Mesoscale Dynamic Meteorology and Large-scale Dynamic Meteorology Programs.