Social Trust and Confidence: A Dual Mode Model of Cooperation in Risk Management

我们相信别人能从合作中获益。在商业世界中，信任支持公司间的联盟、对组织变革的接受、知识的转移等等。在公共生活中，信任是为候选人投票和支持政府举措的基础。在私人生活中，信任指导着病人、医生和医疗机构之间的关系。鉴于信任对我们生活的这种明确而普遍的重要性，它成为越来越多的研究活动的焦点就不足为奇了。我们项目的目标是在环境风险管理的应用背景下测试社会信任的新模式。我们的模型与其他模型的不同之处在于，它清楚地将社会信任与信心区分开来，认为它们是通往合作的独立但相互作用的途径。社会信任是基于对价值观或意图的判断；信心是基于对过去表现的判断。社会信任与不确定性和风险相关；当信心崩溃时，这是必需的。信心是一种常态，有时会在业绩被判断为不好时失去，但通过建立社会信任是可以恢复的。社会信任是稳定状态之间的桥梁；它具有至高无上的地位，能控制过度自信。我们的模型对风险管理实践具有明确的实际意义：试图就绩效进行沟通。（风险管理）应该以建立社会信任关系为前提。信任关系的状态决定了绩效信息的解释。在不信任的状态下，良好的业绩信息被低估，不会产生信心。同样，在信任的状态下，假定不良的业绩信息不会导致信心的丧失。根据我们的模型，社会信任是有弹性的，可以帮助我们对自己的生活保持信心；它可以是进步的也可以是保守的。我们的研究项目将为这种社会信任模型在风险管理中的信心提供测试，提高我们的理解，使我们更接近利用社会信任来改善我们生活的目标。

We trust others to gain the benefits of cooperation. In the businessworld, trust supports interfirm alliances, acceptance of organizationalchange, the transfer of knowledge, and more. In public life, trustunderlies voting for candidates and support for government initiatives. In private life, trust guides relations among patients, physicians, andmedical organizations. Given this clear, pervasive importance of trustto our lives, it is not surprising that it has become the focus of agrowing body of research activity. The goal of our project is to test anew model of social trust within the applied context of environmentalrisk management. Our model differs from others by clearlydistinguishing social trust from confidence as separate, butinteracting, paths to cooperation. Social trust is based on judgmentsof values or intentions; confidence is based on judgments of pastperformance. Social trust is associated with uncertainty and risk; itis required when confidence fails. Confidence is the normal state ofaffairs, sometimes lost when performance is judged to be bad, butrestorable through the establishment of social trust. Social trust is abridge between steady states; it has primacy and control overconfidence. Our model has clear, practical implications for thepractice of risk management: attempts to communicate about performance(i.e., the management of risk) should be preceded by the establishmentof social trust relations. The state of trust relations conditions theinterpretation of performance information. In a state of distrust,presumably good performance information is discounted and does not leadto confidence. Similarly, in a state of trust, presumably badperformance information does not lead to the loss of confidence. Socialtrust, according to our model, is resilient, and helps us to remainconfident in the lives we lead; it can be progressive or conservative. Our research project will provide a test of this model of social trustand confidence in risk management, improving our understanding, movingus closer to the goal of using social trust to improve our lives.