Urban Containment Programs and the Vulnerability of Infrastructure to Hazards: Are Cities Being Engineered to be Safe as Well as Smart?

摘要建议：CMS-0100012 PI：Raymond Burby机构：北卡罗来纳州教堂山大学日期：2001年7月10日摘要：城市遏制计划和基础设施对灾害的脆弱性：城市的设计是否既安全又“聪明“？”聪明的增长”现在在美国被联邦机构、工业界和专业协会所倡导，以提高效率，环境敏感和宜居的城市社区。智能增长的一个关键原则是通过使用监管增长边界、绿化带以及削减水和下水道延伸来遏制城市扩张。然而，明智的增长和城市遏制可能会产生严重的意外后果：由于发展压力的增加，城市发展和相关的民用基础设施系统更容易受到自然灾害的影响。在这个跨学科的项目（土木工程和城市规划）中，我们将记录这一威胁的维度，并确定可用于应对它的工程和其他措施。该研究将集中在四个大都市区的配对样本中。有两个大都市地区已经实施了二十多年的城市遏制计划：俄勒冈州的波特兰和加州的圣地亚哥。它们将分别与邻近的温哥华/克拉克县、华盛顿和加州的橙子县配对，这两个县没有遏制政策。 每个大都市区内的几百个地块将被随机抽样，以确定地块价值和开发强度在遏制开始前后的变化。还将收集关于可能影响发展的一系列其他因素的数据（例如，减灾和其他基础设施标准和发展法规、地块大小、土壤和斜坡、可达性、公共服务和附近的发展趋势）。回归模型将用于隔离遏制的影响，同时对可能影响开发和价值的其他因素进行统计控制。然后，使用基础设施（道路，桥梁，水，下水道和电力）与各种类型的住房单位的比率，将估计遏制计划增加民用基础设施系统损失的可能性的程度。将通过与联邦机构、行业贸易协会以及工程和规划专业协会的代表进行讨论，探讨建筑环境工程标准和城市增长控制规划标准的制定。研究结果对城市发展工程的意义将有助于确保目前广泛提倡的“精明增长”也是“安全增长”。"

ABSTRACTProposal: CMS-0100012PI: Raymond BurbyInstitution: University of North Carolina at Chapel HillDate: July 10, 2001ABSTRACT: Urban Containment Programs and the Vulnerability of Infrastructure to Hazards: Are Cities Being Engineered to Be Safe as Well as "Smart" "Smart Growth" is now being advocated in the United States by federal agencies, industry, and professional associations in order to bring about more efficient, environmentally sensitive, and livable urban communities. One key tenet of smart growth is containment of urban sprawl through the use of regulatory growth boundaries, greenbelts, and curtailment of water and sewer extensions. Smart growth and urban containment, however, may have a serious unintended consequence: increased vulnerability of urban development and related civil infrastructure systems to natural hazards due to increased development pressure. In this interdisciplinary project (civil engineering and urban planning) we will document the dimensions of this threat and identify engineering and other measures that can be used to counter it. The study will focus on a paired sample of four metropolitan areas. Two metropolitan areas have had urban containment programs in place for twenty or more years: Portland, Oregon and San Diego, California. They will be paired with neighboring Vancouver/Clark County, Washington and Orange County, California, respectively, which do not have containment policies. Several hundred parcels within each metropolitan area will be randomly sampled to determine the change in the value of parcels and intensity of development before and after containment began. Data will also be collected on a range of other factors that can affect development (e.g., hazard mitigation and other infrastructure standards and development regulations, parcel size, soils and slopes, accessibility, public services, and nearby development trends). Regression models will be used to isolate the effects of containment while controlling statistically for other factors that can affect development and value. Then, using ratios of infrastructure (roads, bridges, water, sewerage, and electricity) to housing units of various types, the degree to which containment programs increase the potential for losses to civil infrastructure systems will be estimated. The development of engineering standards for the built environment and planning standards for contained urban growth will be explored through discussions with representatives of federal agencies, industry trade associations, and engineering and planning professional associations. The implications of the study findings for engineering urban growth will help to ensure that "smart growth" now being advocated widely is also "safe growth."