Iraqis' Perceptions of the Past, Present, and Future

Mansoor MoaddelMark Inglehart Mark Tessler东密歇根大学这个项目继续进行一项NSF支持研究，考察美国在伊拉克的存在、2003年联合政府的形成、临时政府以及2005年1月30日选举后新的执政当局所产生的新的和不断变化的政治条件下伊拉克人价值取向的变化。这项研究将考察这些条件对伊拉克人世界观的影响。其目的是：(1)探索当前政治不确定、经济困难和社会紧张局势下伊拉克公众世界观的主要特征和长期关切；(2)了解这些世界观与可获得调查数据的邻国伊斯兰公众世界观的异同；(3)了解伊拉克人在未来几年如何评估、反思和重新形成他们对自我和他人的概念；(4)考察这些态度与中间层社会机构、基于种族和宗教的组织、占领当局和统治精英之间的互动关系；(5)探讨新的政治发展如何削弱/加强世俗女权主义和女性认同的发展；(6)根据伊斯兰世界现有的比较历史文化分析，确定可能阻碍/促进(A)阿拉伯民族主义的兴起、(B)伊拉克领土民族主义/超部落民族主义、(C)泛伊斯兰民族主义和(D)部落民族主义/族裔认同的进程；以及(7)分析伊拉克公众中的主要族裔和宗教分裂，以及这些分裂如何塑造伊拉克出现稳定民主的前景。2004年12月完成的第一次伊拉克调查结果显示，伊拉克公众的仇外心理和对异类群体的排斥程度极高。尽管大多数伊拉克人赞同他们社会中的种族分裂是人为的，应该被忽视的规范，但我们发现逊尼派阿拉伯人、什叶派阿拉伯人和逊尼派库尔德人在重要问题上的态度和目标存在巨大差异。这个项目的纵向设计将使我们有可能分析这些乳沟的动态，并确定它们是扩大还是缩小--以及这些趋势背后的因素。更广泛的影响。这项调查提供的伊拉克社会知识可能有助于制定政策，增进美国和伊拉克公众之间的了解，并提供建立民主政体所必需的对伊拉克社会的洞察。该项目还将对社会科学研究社会转型、国家形成、外国占领以及文化和身份形成的发展之间的关系产生深远的影响。

Mansoor MoaddelRonald InglehartMark TesslerEastern Michigan UniversityThis project continue an NSF-support study that examines change in value orientations of Iraqis within the context of the new and changing political conditions produced by the US-presence in Iraq, the formation of coalition authorities in 2003, the interim government, and new ruling authorities following the January 30, 2005 elections. This study will examine the effect of these conditions on the Iraqis' worldviews. It aims to: (1) explore key features of the worldviews and the long-term concerns of the Iraqi public under the current conditions of political uncertainty, economic difficulties, and social tensions; (2) understand the similarities and differences between these worldviews and those of the Islamic publics of the neighboring countries where survey data are available; (3) understand how Iraqis assess, rethink, and re-form their conceptions of self and others in the coming years; (4) examine how these attitudes are related to the interaction among the middle-layer social institutions, ethnic- and religious-based organizations, occupying authorities, and the ruling elite; (5) explore how new political developments may weaken/strengthen the development of secular feminism and female identity; (6) identify, in light of the existing comparative historical analyses of culture in the Islamic world, the processes that may hinder/promote (a) the rise of Arab nationalism, (b) Iraqi territorial nationalism/supra-tribal nationalism, (c) pan-Islamic nationalism, and (d) tribalnationalism/ethnic identity; and (7) analyze the key ethnic and religious cleavages among the Iraqi public, and how these cleavages may shape the prospects for the emergence of stable democracy in Iraq. Findings from the first Iraqi survey, completed in December 2004, reveal exceptionally high levels of xenophobia and rejection of outgroups among the Iraqi public. Although most Iraqis endorse the norm that ethnic cleavages in their society are artificial and should be disregarded, we find sharp differences between the attitudes and goals of Sunni Arabs, Shi'I Arabs and Sunni Kurds on important questions. The longitudinal design of this project will make it possible to analyze the dynamics of these cleavages and to determine whether they are widening or narrowing-and the factors underlying such trends. Broader Impacts. Knowledge of Iraqi society provided by this survey would potentially be useful in contributing to policy, enhancing understanding between the American and Iraqi publics, and providing the insight into the Iraqi society that is necessary for building a democratic polity. This project will also have far-reaching implications for the social scientific study of the relationships social transformation, state formation, foreign occupation, and the development of culture and identity formation.