Doctoral Dissertation Research: The Effects of War on Land-Use and Land-Cover Change: The Case of Northeast Bosnia

军事规划者使用卫星技术作为战争工具的历史相对较长，但很少有研究使用卫星技术来研究战争的影响。这项研究通过应用卫星遥感图像研究战争对波斯尼亚东北部土地利用和土地覆盖变化的影响来解决这一差距。1992年至1995年的波黑战争造成10万多人死亡。更多的人受伤，大规模流离失所影响了420万人口的一半以上。再加上大量交通基础设施和住房被毁，广泛布设地雷，以及农业机械的损失，对人民和土地的影响都是巨大的。虽然最严重的战争影响是在局部范围内可见的(被摧毁的建筑物)，但这篇博士论文项目关注的是对农业用地的影响，卫星传感器可以看到更大范围的影响。战争前和战争期间的陆地卫星图像(每个像素代表地面上30米的正方形)以及过去两年拍摄的最近图像将用于探测被遗弃的农田。卫星图像将相互配准，以便能够使用多种方法根据像素的统计特性对变化进行逐个像素分析。2006年，将根据所得的废弃农地地图，采用分层随机抽样的方法，在选定的地点收集地面参考数据。还将使用高分辨率的Quickbird图像(每个像素捕获地面上不到1米的正方形)来验证分类结果。结果将汇总到奥普什蒂纳(县)行政单位，并利用空间统计与难民回返和人口变化数据相关联。雷区对土地废弃的影响将在地理信息系统中进行测试。特别是，将检验两个假设：(1)土地被遗弃是由于战争期间的雷场安置；(2)在战前波斯尼亚(波斯尼亚的穆斯林)地区和种族清洗最严重的地区，土地被遗弃的程度更大。这项研究的意义体现在遥感数据分析和这些结果在社会人口数据空间统计分析中的应用。遥感分析将对多种变化检测方法进行比较，以帮助研究人员选择适合农业土地利用研究的方法。这项研究将把遥感分析的结果与社会人口数据结合起来，以评估战争对土地利用变化的影响。为了将卫星探测器的电磁响应与地面上的人类活动联系起来，这种分析步骤是必要的。这一步骤在土地覆盖和土地利用变化研究中往往被忽视。废弃农田的空间分布将有助于协助援助和重建机构有效地瞄准受冲突影响最严重的社区。这一项目的结果将适用于波斯尼亚以及目前和未来的其他战区。由于这种方法可以扩展到其他战区(例如达尔富尔、苏丹和非洲之角)，因此可以利用这种针对每个冲突量身定做的土地利用分析的好处来建立一套关于战争对土地利用变化的影响的案例研究。然后，可以对这些研究之间的异同进行比较，以得出关于战争对土地复盖和土地利用的影响的更广泛的结论。作为博士论文研究改进奖，该奖项还将提供支持，使有前途的学生建立一个强大的独立研究生涯。

The use of satellite technology by military planners has a relatively long history as a tool of warfare, but little research has used satellite technology to study the effects of war. This research addresses this gap by applying satellite remote sensing imagery to study the effects of war on changes in land use and land cover in northeast Bosnia. The war in Bosnia from 1992 to 1995 resulted in more than 100,000 deaths. Many more were wounded, and mass displacement affected more than half the population of 4.2 million people. When combined with the destruction of much of the transportation infrastructure and housing stock, widespread mine placement, and loss of agricultural machinery, the impacts to both the people and land were dramatic. Though the most severe war impacts are visible at local scales (destroyed buildings), this doctoral dissertation project focuses on impacts to agricultural land, a larger scale visible to satellite sensors. Landsat imagery (with each pixel representing a 30-m square on the ground) from before and during the war and recent imagery taken over the past two years will be used to detect abandoned agricultural land. The satellite images will be registered to each other to enable a per-pixel analysis of changes based on the statistical properties of the pixels using multiple methods. Ground-reference data will be collected in 2006 at sites selected using a stratified random sampling approach based on the derived map of abandoned agricultural land. High-resolution Quickbird imagery (with each pixel capturing less than a 1-meter square on the ground) will also be used to verify classification results. Results will be aggregated to the opstina (county) administrative unit and correlated with refugee returns and population change data using spatial statistics. The effects of minefields on land abandonment will be tested in a geographic information system. In particular, two hypotheses will be tested: (1) that land abandonment is due to minefield placements during the war and (2) that land abandonment is greater in pre-war Bosniak (Muslims in Bosnia) areas and areas where ethnic cleansing was heaviest.The significance of this research is found in both the remote sensing data analysis and the application of these results in the spatial statistical analysis with socio-demographic data. The remote sensing analysis will compare multiple change-detection methods to help researchers select suitable methods for agricultural land-use studies. This research will integrate the results of the remote sensing analysis with socio-demographic data to assess the impact of the war on land-use changes. Such an analytical step is necessary to connect the electromagnetic responses of a satellite detector with human actions on the ground. This step too often is neglected in land-cover and land-use change studies. The spatial representation of abandoned cropland will be useful for assisting aid and reconstruction agencies in efficiently targeting communities most severely affected by conflict. Results from this project will be pertinent for Bosnia and for other current and future war zones. Because this approach can be extended to other war zones (e.g. Darfur, Sudan, and the Horn of Africa), the benefits of such a land-use analysis, tailored to each conflict, can be used to build a set of case studies on the impacts of war on land-use change. Comparisons of similarities and differences between such studies can then be made to draw broader conclusions of war impacts on land cover and land use. As a Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement award, this award also will provide support to enable a promising student to establish a strong independent research career.